Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
January 14, 2019

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

There has been no shortage of drama across the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape so far in 2019. However, it appears that investors may be tuning out much of the political theatre around them. Which storylines are moving markets now, and which may become more integral to the plot in the weeks ahead?

Continued

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Is a real winner possible in the U.S.-China trade war?


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
January 7, 2019

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Students of history may recall the War of the Roses, which was waged more than 500 years ago. It was an epic battle between two rival branches of the English royal family that both had claims to England’s throne – the House of Lancaster, represented by a red rose, and the House of York, represented by a white rose. While the House of Lancaster ultimately won the War of the Roses, by some measures there was no real winner. The war lasted for many years and resulted in very significant damage to both houses. In fact, by the end of the war, the male lines in both houses had been eliminated.

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No holiday in sight for global disruption


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
December 17, 2018

Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

At the start of 2018, I warned about two significant forms of disruption that posed risks to markets: geopolitical disruption and monetary policy disruption. The solution to the global financial crisis – experimental monetary policy – had created greater wealth inequality, which had led to geopolitical disruption, and the situation was poised to worsen in 2018. This experimental monetary policy, especially large-scale asset purchases, was beginning to be unwound – and that was an experiment in and of itself which also had the potential to cause disruption.

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Three themes we’re watching in 2019, and their implications for institutional investors


Chief Global Market Strategist | Global Market Strategist, EMEA
December 17, 2018

Subject | Industry views | Invesco | Macro views

As we look toward the opportunities and challenges to come in 2019, our base case is positive, with the expectation that global economic growth is likely to decelerate modestly, yet remain solid. We expect major economies to slow from above-trend growth toward on-trend growth, which should contain inflation, as major central banks normalize policy.

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Fixed income: Gauging the ripple effects of softening economic growth


Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector, Invesco Fixed Income
December 14, 2018

Subject | 2019 Investment Outlook Series | Industry views | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Key takeaways

  • In the US, we believe peak levels of growth are behind us and expect to see slowing in the second half of 2019.
  • Outside the US, there are also signs of softening growth.
  • Inflation is likely to increase somewhat, but we do not believe that wage inflation will be significantly passed through to consumer prices in 2019.

Global macro

In the US, we believe peak levels of growth are behind us, although we expect annual growth of around 2.75% to persist through the first half of 2019 before slowing.  Fiscal stimulus is still having a positive effect on growth, but will likely wane in the second half of 2019.  In addition, the positive financial tailwinds that have been driving the economy may turn more neutral as monetary policy continues to tighten.  Therefore, while consumer spending will likely be additive to growth in the first half, as the boost from tax cuts winds down, the question is how much will the consumer want to spend thereafter? Consumption has grown at an unsustainably high level, in our view, over the last several quarters, driven by stronger consumer confidence and tax cuts. A meaningful slowdown in consumption could have negative implications for broader growth.  These effects mean that risks to economic growth are higher in late 2019 than they have been in previous points in the cycle.

Continued

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Global markets, financial district

International growth equities: A supportive outlook for international earnings


CIO, Invesco International and Global Growth, Invesco Ltd.
December 14, 2018

Subject | 2019 Investment Outlook Series | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Key takeaways

  • Despite the soft patch in certain macro indicators, there is a broad expectation that most major regions may deliver solid earnings growth in 2019.
  • We believe equity valuations remain vulnerable to higher bond yields and discount rates.
  • Trade and geopolitical tensions are the primary threats to the growth outlook.

As 2018 draws to a close, strong US corporate cash flow has been well-supported by tax cuts and increasing fiscal spending. This may continue to underpin reasonably healthy capital expenditures and support economic growth and earnings delivery in the US — but the big question is, will growth pick up around the world?

Continued

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emerging markets, economy