Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Full steam ahead: Fed hawkish, hikes rates

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) hiked its key interest rate by 0.25% today, to a target range of 1% – 1.25%. While the hike was fully expected by the market, recent inflation prints, such today’s May CPI falling by -0.1%, had left an expectation this would be a dovish hike. As it turns out, the Fed announcement was hawkish as it formally announced the details of their balance sheet normalization.

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Interest-rate outlook: Excess pessimism in U.K.

During the recent rate rally, the Canadian 10-year government bond yield held at 1.45% and has bounced slightly from there, but still remains at the lower end of its recent range.1 Economic data has tapered off from the strong rebound seen in the first quarter and the Bank of Canada continues to keep monetary policy on hold. The U.S.’s recently imposed tariffs on Canadian softwood exports raised concerns about broader trade implications. In addition, a Canadian subprime mortgage lender has experienced a liquidity drain, drawing attention to an area of the mortgage market that is not typically in the news. We would expect Canadian yields to remain supported in any sell-off.

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Interest-rate outlook: Impact of upcoming British election

The yield on the 10-year Canadian government bond broke through its recent range of 1.60%-1.87%, reaching a low of 1.43% on April 18.1 Geopolitical risks, as well as concerns about elections in France were the big driver as the economic data in Canada has been fairly positive.

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Interest-rate outlook as global growth improves

The 10-year Canadian government bond yield has retreated from its 2017 peak yield of 1.87% and currently sits in the middle of this year’s range of 1.61% – 1.87%.1 Economic data has generally been picking up this year with employment growth showing particular strength. The Bank of Canada has kept policy on hold recently, but remains wary of persistent economic slack. We believe the current trading range is likely to persist unless global economic growth picks up further.

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Third time’s a charm

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its key interest rate by 0.25% today, to a range of 0.75%–1.00%, marking the third increase in the current cycle. Fixed income markets had essentially priced in the increase two weeks ago, when nearly every Fed speaker acknowledged that a March hike appeared to be warranted. The vote was not unanimous as Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, voted against the action, preferring to keep the target rate unchanged at this meeting.

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