Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Global economy: Global economy expected to grow with low inflation in 2019

Key takeaways

  • 2018 has been a year of turmoil, but, 2019 promises to be much calmer, in my view.
  • I believe the Federal Reserve should be successful in positioning the US economy for several more years of expansion.
  • Monetary policy invariably dominates fiscal policy in the determination of inflation

2018 has been a year of turmoil with weakness in the bond markets and two significant sell-offs in equity markets. In between there were crises in Venezuela, Argentina and Turkey; ongoing Brexit negotiations; a strong rise in the price of oil; and disruptions created by US President Donald’s Trump’s repeated trade measures — all set against a backdrop normalising US interest rates. However, 2019 promises to be much calmer, in my view.

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Federal reserve, economy, fiscal policy

2018 Investment Outlook: All signs point towards a sustained global expansion

We approach the new year with confidence that the world’s leading economies will continue to display strength and resilience. The U.S. economy is likely to lead from the front, aided by a gathering upturn in the eurozone and the start of a renewed upswing in global trade. The likely expansion among developed economies should also have a positive impact on the export-oriented, manufacturing economies of East Asia as well as commodity producers in other emerging nations.

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Will Trump’s fiscal stimulus lead to inflation?


March 27, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Financial markets have reacted strongly to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump. While equities in the U.S. and elsewhere have risen strongly (reflecting expectations of stronger growth and therefore improved corporate earnings), bond prices have fallen (reflecting higher yields, in turn a result of higher inflation expectations). As debate continues around President Trump’s fiscal stimulus program, a key question has emerged: What role might his policies play in creating inflation?

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Will populist political movements stall the forces of globalization?


October 28, 2016
Subject | Macro views | Video

The slow recovery from the global financial crisis of 2008 has exacerbated the rise of populist movements around the globe. In the video below, Invesco’s Chief Economist, John Greenwood, discusses the root causes of this “upwelling of populist politics” – the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the U.S. and similar movements in Europe – and what it means for globalization.


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