Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Market review: A sea of black swans


August 15, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

One of the key themes that I anticipated would affect markets this year is disruption. I have maintained that disruption would likely come in different forms: geopolitical risk and monetary policy risk. (There is one additional form – disruption caused by innovation – that will be addressed more fully in a future commentary.) At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I must underscore the concerns I have articulated time and again about geopolitical risk. In many ways, these risks can be viewed as black swan events – difficult to predict, but with far-reaching potential consequences.

Continued

Leave a comment

Market review: Between a rock and a hard place in the U.K.


August 9, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep its key short-term bank lending rate unchanged at 0.25% by a vote of 6-2. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is keeping interest rates ultra low because of concerns that the United Kingdom (U.K.) economy is too weak to accommodate higher borrowing costs. It may seem surprising that the BoE is so concerned about the economy, given that the U.K. has very low unemployment; the current rate is 4.5% – the lowest rate in years.1 That may seem doubly surprising, given that inflation has been rising and could likely be nipped in the bud through higher rates.

Continued

Leave a comment

Market review: The summer of a hundred paper cuts


August 2, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Those of us who work in offices have our own kind of occupational hazards – not the least of which is the paper cut. While hardly dangerous, a paper cut can range from harmless but annoying to mildly painful. The good news is that we rarely get more than one paper cut at once. But what if we experienced a hundred or more paper cuts around the same time? While they may not be deadly, they could certainly cause some serious suffering.

Continued

Market review: Are emotions overriding facts?


July 26, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Global stocks moved higher last week, driven by a U.S. stock market that continued to advance despite a plethora of negative headlines and a growing likelihood that U.S. President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda will not come to fruition in 2017. In addition, U.S. stock-market volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, remains very low. It’s almost as if U.S. stocks have a Teflon-like coating around them, shielding them from the brunt of negative news. But why?

Continued

Leave a comment

Market review: The global forces of disruption


July 18, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

One of the key themes I’ve identified for 2017 and beyond is global disruption. Disruption can take many forms and be either a positive or negative force. The economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that disruption could be a positive force for economies – hence the term, “creative destruction.” Disruption – both positive and negative, both geopolitical and monetary – is abundant across the globe right now.

Continued

Leave a comment

Mid-year market outlook: Canadian & world markets in 3D


July 14, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Global stocks turned in a strong performance in the front half of 2017 despite geopolitical and monetary policy risks. The question, of course, is whether this performance trend can continue in the second half. I believe these two risks will cast an even longer shadow over markets going forward – making concepts such as diversification and risk management even more important for investors’ portfolios.

Continued