Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Market review: Between a rock and a hard place in the U.K.


August 9, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep its key short-term bank lending rate unchanged at 0.25% by a vote of 6-2. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is keeping interest rates ultra low because of concerns that the United Kingdom (U.K.) economy is too weak to accommodate higher borrowing costs. It may seem surprising that the BoE is so concerned about the economy, given that the U.K. has very low unemployment; the current rate is 4.5% – the lowest rate in years.1 That may seem doubly surprising, given that inflation has been rising and could likely be nipped in the bud through higher rates.

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Market review: The summer of a hundred paper cuts


August 2, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Those of us who work in offices have our own kind of occupational hazards – not the least of which is the paper cut. While hardly dangerous, a paper cut can range from harmless but annoying to mildly painful. The good news is that we rarely get more than one paper cut at once. But what if we experienced a hundred or more paper cuts around the same time? While they may not be deadly, they could certainly cause some serious suffering.

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Market review: Are emotions overriding facts?


July 26, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Global stocks moved higher last week, driven by a U.S. stock market that continued to advance despite a plethora of negative headlines and a growing likelihood that U.S. President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda will not come to fruition in 2017. In addition, U.S. stock-market volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, remains very low. It’s almost as if U.S. stocks have a Teflon-like coating around them, shielding them from the brunt of negative news. But why?

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Market review: The global forces of disruption


July 18, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

One of the key themes I’ve identified for 2017 and beyond is global disruption. Disruption can take many forms and be either a positive or negative force. The economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that disruption could be a positive force for economies – hence the term, “creative destruction.” Disruption – both positive and negative, both geopolitical and monetary – is abundant across the globe right now.

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Mid-year market outlook: Canadian & world markets in 3D


July 14, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Global stocks turned in a strong performance in the front half of 2017 despite geopolitical and monetary policy risks. The question, of course, is whether this performance trend can continue in the second half. I believe these two risks will cast an even longer shadow over markets going forward – making concepts such as diversification and risk management even more important for investors’ portfolios.

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Market review: The Fed takes on the elephant in the room


June 21, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views | Trimark

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would raise the fed funds rate by a quarter point – its fourth rate hike since starting to tighten in December 2015. This was very much expected and created no surprises for investors. But the far bigger news coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is that the Fed released its plan to normalize its balance sheet. And with that, the Fed has finally addressed the elephant in the room.

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Market review: U.S. jobs disappoint, U.K. voters head to the polls


June 6, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Last week, the U.S. jobs report for May took centre stage in terms of economic data. Nonfarm payrolls grew just 138,0001 – well below expectations and certainly not what was indicated by the ADP National Employment Report released earlier in the week,2 which showed payroll growth of 253,000 in May. Employment disappointment extended back to the previous two months. The April nonfarm payrolls number was revised down from 211,000 to 174,000, while the March jobs report was revised down from 79,000 to an even more anemic 50,000.1

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Market review: What to look for in Trump’s budget, and beyond


May 31, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Investors have no shortage of headlines to absorb as we approach the summer months. Below, I highlight three key takeaways from the U.S. last week, featuring a new federal budget proposal from the Trump administration – and preview three questions that will be answered this week concerning jobs, productivity and growth in North America.

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A closer look at Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan


May 17, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

In April, the Ontario government announced a 16-point plan to make housing more affordable. In general, its intention is to help level the playing field, balancing the interest in maintaining a viable real estate market in the greater Toronto area with ensuring that middle- and lower-income families can afford to live in that area.

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Market review: While France votes, U.S. faces shutdown


April 25, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Sunday saw the start of the much-awaited presidential election in France, and many advocates of the European Union (EU) are breathing a collective sigh of relief. Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen garnered the most votes – 23.75% and 21.53%, respectively – and will therefore advance to the runoff election on May 7. For those who wanted to see as little impact on capital markets as possible, a Macron–Le Pen matchup is as close to a “best-case scenario” as possible. (The “worst-case scenario” for the continuation of the EU was a matchup between Le Pen and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who are on opposite sides of the political spectrum, but both anti-EU.)

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