Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Three macro trends to be thankful for


November 21, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views | Trimark

This week marks Thanksgiving in America. This coming Thursday we will break bread and devour turkey with family and friends and, most importantly, take time to show gratitude for that which is good in our lives. The act of showing gratitude and giving thanks is a universal concept and one that I would like to indulge in this week’s commentary. In that spirit, I take stock of the past year and share with you three market and economic trends for which I am thankful:

Continued

Leave a comment

How vulnerable is the stock market?


November 14, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Last week saw the U.S. Senate introduce its version of the tax reform bill, which caused some concern among investors. The Senate version of the bill delayed the much-anticipated corporate tax cut until 2019. In addition, because it has some significant differences from the House bill, it raised uncertainty about Congress’ ability to pass tax reform this year – or at all.

Continued

Leave a comment

Nine things to watch in November

Despite October’s reputation as a precarious month for stocks, the equity markets made it through the month without so much as a hiccup, let alone a correction. Last month commemorated the 30th anniversary of the 1987 market drop, but investors did not get spooked by the supposed “October effect.” With October behind us, it is now an opportune time to keep in mind some of the things we will want to look for in November and beyond.

Continued

Why haven’t geopolitical headlines rattled the markets?


October 31, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Geopolitical risk has risen in many areas of the world, and we saw several key issues escalate last week. When I travel and meet with clients, I’m increasingly asked why markets don’t reflect these growing risks. Part of the answer is that markets have simply become somewhat immune to it. However, I also believe that two key factors have helped cushion capital markets from the impact of geopolitical risk: accommodative monetary policy and the growing global economy. In this week’s commentary, I discuss all of these competing market forces. 

Continued

Leave a comment

Asian leaders retain power; questions surround central banks


October 24, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

The last 18 months have seen a rejection of the status quo in multiple elections, from the Brexit vote to the U.S. presidential election to the recent Catalonia vote. Last week, we saw the U.S. and U.K. continue to work through the changes stemming from their elections – and we saw one key region buck this trend and embrace the status quo as the way to move forward.

Continued

Leave a comment

Is stimulus still needed in a growing global economy?


October 11, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

More signs emerged last week that we are in the throes of a synchronized global economic recovery, with emerging markets and developed markets seeing improved economic growth. As the Trump administration works to pass its tax reform package, I expect the debate over economic stimulus to accelerate. Is it still needed in a growing economy?

Continued

Leave a comment

Q4 market outlook: Six trends to watch


October 3, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Last quarter saw stocks globally continue to rise. The relatively accommodative monetary policy environment and improved global growth were strong drivers. However, as we head into the fourth quarter, I think it’s important that we recognize the potential for greater disruption – in terms of both geopolitics and monetary policy – which can cause greater volatility in capital markets.

Continued

Leave a comment

Understanding the ups and downs of commodities


September 26, 2017
Subject | Commodities | Macro views

The past few weeks have seen commodity prices experience some significant swings, with different commodities impacted by different factors. I find that investors have a lot of questions about commodities and what drives them — particularly given all the dramatic weather events over the past few weeks — so this week I’m going to focus on these investments (with a quick note at the end about key events from last week).

Continued

Leave a comment

Will the Fed start normalization this week?


September 19, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The dials of geopolitical and monetary risk are spinning in different directions across the globe. Of note in the U.S., markets are wondering whether glimmers of political bipartisanship bode well for reform legislation, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is gearing up for what may be one of its most important meetings ever.

Continued

Leave a comment

Uncertainty clouds view of global markets


September 12, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

For the past several months, I’ve talked about disruption as a key theme for 2017 and argued that it would have three key sources this year, including geopolitics and monetary policy. Last week was emblematic of that theme, as geopolitical events and central bank decisions shared the spotlight.

Continued

Leave a comment

Market review: Between a rock and a hard place in the U.K.


August 9, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep its key short-term bank lending rate unchanged at 0.25% by a vote of 6-2. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is keeping interest rates ultra low because of concerns that the United Kingdom (U.K.) economy is too weak to accommodate higher borrowing costs. It may seem surprising that the BoE is so concerned about the economy, given that the U.K. has very low unemployment; the current rate is 4.5% – the lowest rate in years.1 That may seem doubly surprising, given that inflation has been rising and could likely be nipped in the bud through higher rates.

Continued

Leave a comment

Market review: The summer of a hundred paper cuts


August 2, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Those of us who work in offices have our own kind of occupational hazards – not the least of which is the paper cut. While hardly dangerous, a paper cut can range from harmless but annoying to mildly painful. The good news is that we rarely get more than one paper cut at once. But what if we experienced a hundred or more paper cuts around the same time? While they may not be deadly, they could certainly cause some serious suffering.

Continued

Market review: Are emotions overriding facts?


July 26, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Global stocks moved higher last week, driven by a U.S. stock market that continued to advance despite a plethora of negative headlines and a growing likelihood that U.S. President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda will not come to fruition in 2017. In addition, U.S. stock-market volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, remains very low. It’s almost as if U.S. stocks have a Teflon-like coating around them, shielding them from the brunt of negative news. But why?

Continued

Leave a comment