Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Halftime: Mid-year global market outlook


August 11, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco

In the aftermath of a tumultuous 2016, much discussion has centred around the equity outlook for 2017 and beyond. In fact, the second quarter saw continued strong performance from global markets, though in our view, the long-term earnings outlook remains murky. As we enter the second half of the year, Invesco’s International and Global Growth team assesses global equity performance to date through our EQV (earnings, quality and valuation) lens to identify the key areas to watch – along with potential growth opportunities.

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Elections in Europe could mean investment opportunity

A brimming political calendar will make 2017 an eventful year for Europe. While a bumpy ride seems all but certain, it could mean increased opportunity for investors, given the heavy political slate and investor skepticism.

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What three wild cards could change the investing landscape?

A series of exceptional events led to wide swings in global equity performance from the first half to the second half of 2016. Looking into 2017, the Invesco International and Global Growth team is generally more constructive on non-U.S. stocks (versus U.S. stocks) from an earnings, quality and valuation (EQV) perspective, although we are keeping our eyes on three potential wild cards that could affect the outlook.

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Is Brexit a catalyst for fiscal policy shift?

When contemplating the investment implications of Brexit, it’s worth considering the probability that it proves to be more significant than just the latest reason to become further concerned about the investment outlook. Clearly, this is the short-term perspective. In the longer term, however, it’s possible that Brexit could be seen as an inflection point in terms of policy strategy to address global economic travails.

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Brexit clouds the international growth lens

Prior to the Brexit decision on June 23, global economic, financial and geopolitical conditions were fragile and arguably fraught with no shortage of uncertainty. The outcome of Britain’s referendum vote was therefore anything but welcome, catching many by surprise. Since then:

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A most welcome market sell-off


February 16, 2016
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco

The indiscriminate sell-off through the late fourth quarter of 2015 and into 2016 is exactly the type of environment the Invesco International and Global Growth team has been waiting for. While the correction year to date has begun to improve the risk/reward ratio for many stocks, it’s important to recognize that share-price declines have in many instances largely tracked earnings estimates lower. We’ve yet to see risk premiums rise to adequate levels in the higher-quality areas of the market we prefer, but our research “watch list” of stocks approaching buy levels is growing.

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