In 2017, the S&P 500 Index did not experience any corrections greater than 5%. So far in 2018, there have been three such market drops. So which year represents the more typical investor experience? History shows us that the relative calm of 2017 was an outlier, and that losses and volatility are recurring events that investors should be prepared for.
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Late summer has not been fruitful for the low-volatility factor. From July 6 to September 9, the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index has fallen by 4.67%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 1.70%.1 This is in sharp contrast to the second quarter, when the low-volatility index returned 6.75%, and the broad-market index returned 2.46%.1 Naturally, some investors are wondering what’s behind the shift.
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The trade-off between risk and return is central to modern portfolio theory. Finance textbooks teach that the more risk an investor assumes, the greater the expected return. This is not only academic, but intuitive to most people. Following this logic, one would expect lower volatility securities to generate lower returns over time, and higher volatility securities to deliver higher returns in exchange for added risk. But this may not necessarily be the case – at least within a given asset class.
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