Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

BoC hikes again, citing near-capacity growth

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today it was raising the target overnight rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The last time the BoC hiked its target rate was at the September 6 meeting. Market expectations for this rate hike began to increase several weeks ago, so it was almost fully priced into the market.

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Tax reform: A year-end bonus for fixed income?

Despite the near non-stop drama of the legislative process, we ended December with the U.S. Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 being signed into law. What does this mean for fixed income investors? In my opinion, the news is overwhelmingly positive for the U.S. investment grade market; here are four reasons why.

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Ten expectations for 2018


January 3, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Last year was a strong one for capital markets. Most countries’ stock markets posted positive returns, with many markets, including the U.S., posting double-digit gains. Globally, and in the U.S., the best-performing sector was technology. Energy was the worst-performing sector globally – and was one of the worst-performing sectors in the U.S.1

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Fed maintains a slow and steady approach

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) raised the target Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to a range of 1.25%-1.50% at today’s meeting. This is the third rate hike this year, although the first one since the Fed announced it was reducing the size of its balance sheet at the September meeting.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Potential risks facing the markets in 2018

Forecasting is notoriously difficult, and unexpected events can derail even the best educated estimates. Five of Invesco’s global CIOs discuss the most likely risks facing their base-case expectations for market performance in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Valuations to make 2018 a stockpickers market

The current market rally is one of the longest in history, and valuations in many markets may be stretched. Five of Invesco’s global CIOs explain their views on valuations and which markets might provide opportunities in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: What to expect in 2018

Global markets continued to climb throughout 2017, across virtually all asset classes. Can this performance continue through 2018? Five of Invesco’s global CIOs discuss their base-case expectations for market performance in the year ahead.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Global fixed income markets look well-supported by macro factors

Macro

The current investing environment seems daunting. Markets have had a strong couple of years and valuations are tight. At the same time, risks abound. Geopolitical risks including North Korea, terrorism, Brexit and unpredictable politics in Europe and the U.S. make for an uncomfortable investing environment. In such uncertain times, it is important to use an investing framework to help manage through the many risks in the markets, to remind us of the markets’ key driving forces and to help measure the impact of events or potential risks.

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Interest rate outlook: Bank of Canada to pause

After raising the target overnight rate 0.25 percentage points at each of the previous two meetings, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the rate unchanged at its meeting on October 25, 2017. While growth has remained strong, it has slowed from the second quarter and the BoC appears ready to give its two previous rate hikes time to filter through the economy before taking further action. Additional uncertainty around the breakdown in North American Free Trade Agreement trade negotiations leaves the BoC cautious regarding future hikes. The Canadian 10-year yield appears to have peaked for the moment and yields have several reasons to fall from current levels, in our view.

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Currency outlook: Global growth, policy convergence support longer-term U.S. dollar weakness


October 13, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

The Canadian dollar’s rally since May could be described as relentless. We view the Bank of Canada (BOC) as currently the most hawkish developed market central bank, having hiked its overnight rate by 0.25 percentage points in two back-to-back meetings, bringing its policy rate to 1.00%.1

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Volume does NOT equal liquidity. Here’s why


October 6, 2017
Subject | ETFs | PowerShares | Smart beta

Despite explosive growth in the use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the last decade, a few persistent myths about them remain. On our ETF capital markets desk, for example, we often hear from advisors with liquidity concerns. The idea that volume equals liquidity persists among many investors, and advisors get a lot of questions about this from their clients. Let’s dispel this myth by looking a little deeper at the role of the market maker in ETF trading.

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Interest rate outlook: Bank of Canada likely to raise rate again

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has hiked interest rates at two consecutive meetings, bringing the overnight benchmark rate to 1.00%.1 GDP growth and employment trends remain strong, while inflation has stayed below the BoC’s 2.0% target. The Canadian 10-year government bond yield has followed an upward trend after hitting its lows in the second quarter. We believe higher rates are likely.

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Fed balance sheet normalization at last

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) held interest rates steady at Wednesday’s meeting, with a target range of 1% – 1.25%. After preparing the markets over the last several meetings, the Fed finally announced they would begin their long-awaited balance sheet reduction plans in October 2017.

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Fed balance sheet normalization at last

Will the Fed start normalization this week?


September 19, 2017
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The dials of geopolitical and monetary risk are spinning in different directions across the globe. Of note in the U.S., markets are wondering whether glimmers of political bipartisanship bode well for reform legislation, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is gearing up for what may be one of its most important meetings ever.

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Interest rate outlook: BoC moves firmly into hawkish camp

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has moved firmly into the hawkish camp, with a rate hike to 1% this month, leaving the market expecting one more rate hike this year. The benchmark rate was raised to 0.75% in July.1 Recent economic data continues to surprise to the upside.

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