Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Tariffs, earnings and politics: What’s moving markets this week?


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
July 17, 2018

Subject | Macro views

There is no shortage of events to watch this week: The European Union and China will meet to discuss foreign investment, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are meeting in Finland, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gives his semi-annual testimony to Congress. But can any of these events direct the market’s attention away from the strong second-quarter earnings season?

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Five risks that could affect fixed income markets


Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector, Invesco Fixed Income
July 12, 2018

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy – we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long. Nevertheless, political uncertainty, trade tensions and a sell-off in emerging markets have challenged investors in recent months. We expect these factors to generate further volatility and believe caution is warranted. However, we believe greater volatility will generate new opportunities for fixed income investors against a backdrop of solid macro and credit fundamentals. Below are five risks we are monitoring.

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Six issues driving global markets


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
July 10, 2018

Subject | Institutional | Invesco

As I write this, early on July 9, global stocks have hit a two-week high1 and the price of copper is rallying. Markets are clearly focusing on positive data at the moment, which is a welcome change. Below, I highlight six important things that happened last week – both positive and negative – and several upcoming issues to watch.

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Interest rate outlook: U.S. inflation should peak this summer


Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector, Invesco Fixed Income
July 6, 2018

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

U.S. growth remains strong, accelerating in the second quarter versus the first quarter’s lackluster 2.2% performance.1 We expect 2018 growth of around 2.8%, with strong contributions from capital expenditures and consumption. Core inflation continues to be benign, and we see it peaking in the next two months at around 2.2%. After that, softer rental and service costs should drive it back below 2%. In our view, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike one more time this year before pausing in response to declining inflation. Strong growth and lower-than-expected inflation point to a 10-year Treasury yield of around 3%. However, supply dynamics will likely begin to shift in the third quarter as the Treasury begins to issue more long-term debt. This may pressure the Treasury yield curve steeper.

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