Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Why I don’t make macro calls


Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Trimark Investments
April 21, 2017

Subject | Active management | Trimark

We’re frequently asked for our thoughts on the market or for an outlook. I can make some general statements, but do not make investments based on macro calls and I feel it’s potentially dangerous to apply any broad market statements to everything out there.

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Currency outlook: CDN overvalued, USD mixed


Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Macro Research and Global Multi-Sector Portfolio Management, Invesco Fixed Income
April 19, 2017

Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) | Macro views

The Canadian dollar was reasonably strong until the first week of March, when the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) began telegraphing the prospects of a rate hike at its March meeting. The Bank of Canada has appeared to continue to favour a somewhat weaker currency in spite of some strong economic data, including very strong full-time employment reports. Our opinion remains that the Canadian dollar is overvalued and we favour being short the currency.

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Interest-rate outlook as global growth improves


Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of North America Rates, Invesco Fixed Income†
April 18, 2017

Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) | Macro views

The 10-year Canadian government bond yield has retreated from its 2017 peak yield of 1.87% and currently sits in the middle of this year’s range of 1.61% – 1.87%.1 Economic data has generally been picking up this year with employment growth showing particular strength. The Bank of Canada has kept policy on hold recently, but remains wary of persistent economic slack. We believe the current trading range is likely to persist unless global economic growth picks up further.

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BoC holds rates, boosts 2017 growth forecast


Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of North America Rates, Invesco Fixed Income†
April 12, 2017

Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) | Macro views

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today that the target overnight rate would remain at 0.5%. The tone of the statement was generally upbeat and less dovish than the last statement, released on March 1.

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Why we are not afraid of the Fed


Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector, Invesco Fixed Income
April 12, 2017

Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco | Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) | Macro views

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in March and is likely to raise them again twice this year, yet the financial markets have taken this news in stride. Why is this? Simply put, the Fed is behaving dovishly, considering the positive growth pattern we are seeing.

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Finding defensible yield as the profit cycle turns


Senior Portfolio Manager, Invesco Advisers, Inc.
April 11, 2017

Subject | Active management | Invesco | Macro views

As dividend income investors, we are focused on sustainability of profit margins over a full cycle. I believe that we are currently in the later stages of the profit cycle, with corporate profit margins at about 1% below their late-2014 peak levels. What does that mean for us as high-conviction, bottom-up investors?

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