Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

2018 Investment Outlook: Taking tally of the global rally

As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the U.S. for four consecutive years – and for six of the last seven years.1

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2018 Investment Outlook: Balancing cyclical and structural influences in multi-asset investing

Despite what has been an incredibly tumultuous, unpredictable and at times unimaginable period for global politics and an initially spluttering return to global growth, central banks appear to have successfully steered markets through the worst, ironing out the kinks and at times acting together to present a semblance of global harmony. Sometimes, markets have appeared to simply ignore events that in less interesting times would have caused a rout. Somehow though, it still doesn’t feel that the aftermath of the financial crisis is fully behind us, nearly 10 years on, and we believe it is vital to consider both cyclical and structural forces in building our economic and market outlook.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Emerging markets can extend their winning ways in 2018

Drawing support from an improvement in fundamentals at both a macro and corporate level, emerging equity markets significantly outperformed their peers in the developed world in 2017.1 Going forward, we expect this positive environment – favourable economic prospects, a pickup in global trade activity, sluggish inflation and competitive currencies – to provide an attractive landscape in which companies could prosper. With a supportive global macro backdrop, we are confident that companies can build on the generally stronger performances witnessed in 2017 and continue to deliver on the earnings front in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Meeting the diversification challenge

When traditional asset classes move in tandem, building a diversified portfolio presents a challenge. Duy Nguyen, Portfolio Manager and CIO, Invesco Global Solutions Development & Implementation Team, explains how he will approach portfolio construction in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: European equities: Plenty of scope for active managers to add value

Europe is a rich, highly developed part of the world which is home to a vast range of companies. However, on occasion it still seems to struggle to attract attention from serious investors around the world. There’s always a handy excuse: “Why bother when it’s only a play on more interesting parts of the world?” or “There’s never any earnings growth, is there?” or “Don’t the politics make it un-investable?” Wrong.

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2018 Investment Outlook: All signs point towards a sustained global expansion

We approach the new year with confidence that the world’s leading economies will continue to display strength and resilience. The U.S. economy is likely to lead from the front, aided by a gathering upturn in the eurozone and the start of a renewed upswing in global trade. The likely expansion among developed economies should also have a positive impact on the export-oriented, manufacturing economies of East Asia as well as commodity producers in other emerging nations.

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2018 Investment Outlook: In a tepid U.S. economy, where do we see growth opportunities?

As the Invesco U.S. Growth Equities team looks into 2018 and observe the weight of the evidence, we think the U.S. equity markets can achieve mid- to high-single-digit price appreciation in 2018 as we continue in the secular bull market that began in March 2009.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Could tax reform provide a boost to value stocks?

As 2017 nears its end, U.S. value stocks are mired in their longest stretch of underperformance versus U.S. growth stocks since the Great Depression, held back by low interest rates and easy monetary policy. In my view, the top issue that will help determine whether that trend continues or abates is U.S. tax reform.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Global markets – 10 expectations for 2018

2017 was a positive year for the economy and capital markets. The global economy grew at a faster pace than in 2016, and risk assets also rose significantly1. However, investors are wondering whether the current environment will continue through 2018. Following are my 10 key expectations for the new year:

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2018 Investment Outlook: We are dedicated to helping clients achieve their investment objectives

The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realized: uncertainty regarding the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the U.S., North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in Germany, France, Iran and other countries.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Can stability in the region extend Asia’s outperformance?

2017 has been a good year for Asian equities so far, rising 39% and outperforming the rest of the world.1 The strong performance has been supported by steady economic conditions and robust corporate earnings. Yet still, Asia is trading at its lowest price-book ratio relative to the S&P 500 Index in 15 years.2

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2018 Investment Outlook: China: 2018 growth may moderate, but reforms and innovation bode well for the longer term

Chinese equities caught investors by surprise in 2017 with a strong rally. Contrary to the pessimism over the past few years, investors have turned upbeat towards China, and for good reason: Economic data in general exceeded expectations, and we have seen broad-based earnings growth.

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2018 Investment Outlook: The synchronized economic expansion: How much further to run?

The global economy continues its synchronized recovery, as evidenced by robust data across regions. Indeed, all 45 countries tracked by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation are expected to post positive economic growth in 2017 for the first time in 10 years. Even more optimistically, 33 out of 45 countries are seeing accelerating growth. This has boosted international trade and commodity prices, and helped make the global expansion story gradually more self-sustaining. On this basis alone, the prospects for 2018 look positive, with broad-based improvements across the major developed economies and a number of emerging market economies expected to continue.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Potential risks facing the markets in 2018

Forecasting is notoriously difficult, and unexpected events can derail even the best educated estimates. Five of Invesco’s global CIOs discuss the most likely risks facing their base-case expectations for market performance in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Valuations to make 2018 a stockpickers market

The current market rally is one of the longest in history, and valuations in many markets may be stretched. Five of Invesco’s global CIOs explain their views on valuations and which markets might provide opportunities in 2018.

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2018 Investment Outlook: What to expect in 2018

Global markets continued to climb throughout 2017, across virtually all asset classes. Can this performance continue through 2018? Five of Invesco’s global CIOs discuss their base-case expectations for market performance in the year ahead.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Looking for opportunity in private equity and stressed credit

The overall global macroeconomic picture saw gradual improvement in 2017, aided by continued supportive monetary policy from central banks throughout key economic centers. We entered the year expecting volatility, in part due to the implications of the U.S. presidential election. However, lower volatility took hold as markets grew comfortable with a range of uncertain issues, including potential policy changes from Washington, China’s economy and the overall interest rate and commodity environment. We expect that 2018 may see an increase in volatility as the economic expansion in the U.S. enters its ninth year.1 While our base view is for a continuation of the current economic expansion, there is a higher degree of uncertainty beyond 2018. We are monitoring several key themes that each play an important role in the private equity and stressed credit universes.

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2018 Investment Outlook: Global equities: Risks, uncertainties, and opportunities

Short-term forecasting is a fun, but not often a particularly profitable, exercise. To think one can predict what the next year holds is folly, and to assume you could profit from that prognostication is dubious. In 2016, would you have predicted Donald Trump would be inaugurated in 2017 as the next U.S. president? If so, how would you have expected markets to react? Consider everything we’ve seen in the past year or so:

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2018 Investment Outlook: Global fixed income markets look well-supported by macro factors

Macro

The current investing environment seems daunting. Markets have had a strong couple of years and valuations are tight. At the same time, risks abound. Geopolitical risks including North Korea, terrorism, Brexit and unpredictable politics in Europe and the U.S. make for an uncomfortable investing environment. In such uncertain times, it is important to use an investing framework to help manage through the many risks in the markets, to remind us of the markets’ key driving forces and to help measure the impact of events or potential risks.

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2018 Investment Outlook: More markets are thriving, but it’s critical to understand regional nuances

An increasingly synchronized economic upswing, the first since the global financial crisis, continues to support real estate market fundamentals around the world. More markets are now doing well, notably several in Continental Europe. This is a great positive and is creating opportunities for real estate investors.

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