Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Currency outlook: CAD rally continues

The Canadian dollar has rallied significantly this year following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) switch to a hawkish tilt. The combination of reasonably strong growth and the expressed intent of the BoC to remove both emergency rate cuts from 2015 left the market covering shorts in the Canadian dollar. The extreme rally has left the currency susceptible to a short-term retracement, in our view.

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Five trends that could impact global small caps


August 24, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco

The only constant is change – and the global market is certainly proof of that. As we assess our outlook for the rest of the year, we see several potential changes that could impact international small- and all-cap funds. Here are the five trends we anticipate having the biggest effect – and the ways the Invesco International and Global Growth team is poised to respond.

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Halftime: Mid-year global market outlook


August 11, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco

In the aftermath of a tumultuous 2016, much discussion has centred around the equity outlook for 2017 and beyond. In fact, the second quarter saw continued strong performance from global markets, though in our view, the long-term earnings outlook remains murky. As we enter the second half of the year, Invesco’s International and Global Growth team assesses global equity performance to date through our EQV (earnings, quality and valuation) lens to identify the key areas to watch – along with potential growth opportunities.

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Interest-rate outlook: Long-term U.S. rates now more dependent on global monetary policy

After hitting lows for the year in June, 10-year government bond yields rose to a two-year high of 1.89% in July,1 as the Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly increased its benchmark rate from 0.50% to 0.75%.2 The accompanying statement was upbeat as well, brushing off softer inflation numbers as temporary. The BoC’s optimism will probably keep the possibility of another rate hike alive at each of its upcoming meetings. We expect interest rates in Canada to rise from current levels, but we are looking for signs that rates may have topped out in the short term.

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Currency outlook: Strong global growth drives central bank policy convergence

The Canadian dollar has been in a slow decline over the last year. While the Bank of Canada increased the benchmark interest rate, as expected, by 0.25% (to 0.75%) at its July meeting, oil prices appear to have peaked for the year due to increased U.S. oil production, presenting a headwind for the currency.1 We are neutral on the Canadian dollar, and concerns about overleveraged Canadian consumers leave us looking for opportunities to short the currency.

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Emerging from the shadows – the case for emerging markets

After an extended period of weakness, emerging market equities have rebounded nicely year-to-date – outperforming developed market stocks by a sizeable margin, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI EAFE Index.1 In my view, this strong performance has been driven by better macroeconomic conditions, strong earnings growth and discounted valuations relative to developed market equities.1

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Working capital: The worst kind of expense


July 20, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Trimark

As active portfolio managers, we seek to identify and exploit inefficiencies in the marketplace. One major inefficiency, in my view, is the common fixation on earnings-based valuation metrics. Focusing on free cash flow, rather than net income, EBIT or EBITDA, allows us to find valuation arbitrage opportunities based on gaps in accounting earnings and free cash flow.

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Looking beyond the active-passive debate

Recently, one of Invesco’s funds – Trimark International Companies Fund – was singled out for praise as an example that true active management can outperform. While the kudos were well-deserved for the team, it appeared as part of a commentary that was otherwise unsympathetic to active management.

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Three ways we manage risk in emerging markets


June 5, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Trimark

Many investors perceive emerging markets (EM) as a risky place to invest their money. Visions of faraway places with different approaches to business, regulation and governance can be intimidating, but the reality in many EM countries is very different today than it was just twenty years ago. In this blog post, I’m going to discuss the three main ways our funds differ from others when it comes to managing risk and maintaining a strong risk/return profile for our EM investments.

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Is this the start of a long-awaited up cycle in Asian markets?

Last November, the Invesco International and Global Growth team reported that in Asia ex-Japan, the building blocks were in place to shore up top-line growth. Our outlook for Earnings, Quality and Valuation (EQV) was cautiously positive. 2016 marked the first time in five years where consensus earnings forecasts did not collapse at year-end, and an upward bias to earnings forecasts has continued into 2017. Is this the beginning of a new earnings growth cycle?

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Softwood lumber saga: Why duties may not be as bad for investors as feared


May 23, 2017
Subject | Active management | Trimark

In a continuation of a long-running trade dispute that dates back to 1982, Canadian softwood lumber exports to the United States were recently hit with an average countervailing duty of 19.88%, with additional anti-dumping duties to be announced in June (expected to be at least another 5%).1 This follows a 10-year period under a Softwood Lumber Agreement that required much less onerous export taxes from Canadian producers.

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Improvement signals in international equity markets

The Invesco International and Global Growth team has been managing international equities for 25 years. In that time, we’ve seen the performance pendulum swing widely across global regions and investment styles. But no matter the market conditions, our focus on EQV – Earnings, Quality and Valuation – has remained constant.

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Europe: Are elections overshadowing opportunities?

Ask any investor in Europe what concerns them most, and election risk will likely be near the top of the list. With French elections underway,German elections looming, and the fallout from the U.K.’s Brexit vote ongoing, that concern is to be expected. However, the Invesco International and Global Growth team believes that election risk – while real – may be overstated. Looking through our EQV (Earnings, Quality and Valuation) lens, we believe that valuations in the highest-quality companies are expensive, but we have been opportunistic in finding new names that are seeing short-term dislocations.

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Currency management: A simple roadmap

Global diversification has become standard practice among investors around the world. As the trend toward global investing grows, managing currency risk in global portfolios is likely to take on increasing importance. Sovereign wealth funds, central banks and other investors are likely to consider the benefits and challenges of currency hedging as their investment strategies become more globally focused. However, evaluating the impact of foreign exchange risk on portfolios and how to address that risk is a debated issue. Should global investors adopt strategies to specifically address currency risk or should they not?

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Why we are not afraid of the Fed

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in March and is likely to raise them again twice this year, yet the financial markets have taken this news in stride. Why is this? Simply put, the Fed is behaving dovishly, considering the positive growth pattern we are seeing.

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Finding defensible yield as the profit cycle turns


April 11, 2017
Subject | Active management | Invesco | Macro views

As dividend income investors, we are focused on sustainability of profit margins over a full cycle. I believe that we are currently in the later stages of the profit cycle, with corporate profit margins at about 1% below their late-2014 peak levels. What does that mean for us as high-conviction, bottom-up investors?

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