Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

U.K. triggers Brexit with Article 50: What happens now?

The Brexit process started today, when British Prime Minister Theresa May formally notified the European Union (EU) of the U.K.’s intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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Promises to policy: What’s in store for U.S. stocks?


February 23, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco

As of today, we have more questions than answers about what to expect from the new Donald Trump administration. Certainly, it appears the U.S. president has a pro-business and anti-regulation outlook, but how exactly will this translate into policy, and how will corporations and trading partners react? That remains to be seen.

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What does Trump’s rhetoric mean for Asian markets?


February 17, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Absent the major reform investors have been hoping for, Japan’s economy remains largely stagnant, with the yen weakening against the U.S. dollar over the last quarter of 2016. By contrast, China, along with the rest of Asia, seems poised for another year of relatively stable growth. The policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, however, could potentially spur volatility in both economies. Let’s take a closer look.

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Currency outlook: USD volatility and euro weakness

The Canadian dollar has bounced around since the U.S. presidential election as economic growth has shown positive signs but inflation continues to disappoint the Bank of Canada (BoC). It sold off initially after the Fed raised rates in December, but rallied back strongly after year end. The BoC stated at its January meeting that rate cuts are still a possibility, but it will likely wait until more clarity is available on U.S. fiscal and trade policy before taking action. The Canadian dollar remains overvalued, in our view, but will likely trade within a range in the near term.

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Interest-rate outlook: The aftermath of Trump’s win

Canadian government yields have remained under the same upward pressure felt globally in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election which boosted expectations of higher growth and inflation fueled by U.S. fiscal stimulus and tax cuts. The Bank of Canada meeting in January recognized that Canada’s economy has shown some improvement, but emphasized there was more work needed to reduce excess capacity as inflation remains very low.

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Is uncertain U.S. trade policy harming EM economies?


February 10, 2017
Subject | Active management | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy changes that could potentially harm emerging market economies dragged them down about 2.2% during the fourth quarter of 2016, underperforming developed international markets by about 3.5%.1 Yet emerging-market economies generally showed positive signs, with exports beginning to recover, commodity prices rebounding, and inflation remaining benign.

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