Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Trade talk tempers Asian market optimism


May 9, 2018
Subject | Invesco

Investors began 2018 with a generally optimistic view, but this euphoria faded by quarter-end as protectionism and talk of a U.S./China trade war became a key concern. Despite investor pessimism, we expect further volatility might create the opportunity to invest in high-quality Asian equities at lower valuations.

Continued

Leave a comment

Is the ‘synchronized’ global expansion really in sync?


May 8, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

“Getting long in the tooth” is an interesting way to describe something that is getting old and presumably nearing its end – it refers to the long-time practice of estimating a horse’s age by looking at its mouth. I’ve found myself using this expression a lot these days, as the U.S. experiences its second-longest economic expansion in the last 100 years. But investors should remember that – even as market-watchers talk about “synchronized global growth” – other economies are in much earlier stages of expansion.

Continued

Leave a comment

Yield signs: Deconstructing a key market indicator


April 24, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The biggest news of last week was not a tweet, but a Treasury yield – specifically the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which rose significantly last week, to 2.95%.1 As of this writing on Monday, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.98%, very close to the key 3% level it has not seen in more than four years.1 But what is this key market indicator telling us? And why do people care?

Continued

Leave a comment

As U.S.-China trade drama continues, is a risk-off stance warranted?


April 10, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week saw an acceleration of the protectionist rhetoric between the U.S. and China. The week ended on a down note, with U.S. President Donald Trump tweeting a proposal for another $100 billion in tariffs, swiftly followed by China, despite its important holiday, promising to match the most recent round of tariffs and fight the U.S. “at any cost.” Following China’s threat, Trump admitted that the U.S. may feel some “pain,” while U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin conceded that, though unlikely, “there is the potential of a trade war.”

Continued

Leave a comment

Five things to watch in April


April 3, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The first quarter of the year has ended with major developed market indices down slightly and major emerging market indices up slightly. But those numbers belie a very turbulent period in which stocks were whipsawed. Bonds also experienced gyrations, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury moving from 2.41% at the start of the quarter to a peak of 2.94% and ending at 2.74%.1 As we begin the second quarter, there are five critical things to watch.

Continued

Leave a comment

Tariffs, trade war concerns help spark equity market sell-off


March 27, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

It seems we are beginning to smell the faint hint of fear in markets. Not only did stocks sell off globally last week, but investors also fled to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, which drove the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.817% – a level not seen in weeks. Last week’s market rout was the worst week for stocks in two years.

Continued

Leave a comment

The Fed stays the course under its new leader

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as expected on Wednesday and signaled two more rate hikes for 2018. It also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for the next few years, which suggests that the Fed is optimistic regarding the future performance of the U.S. economy.

Continued

Leave a comment

Revolving headlines lead to a tug of war for stocks


March 20, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Across the globe, stocks experienced a tug of war last week, with good news (positive earnings and other signs of accelerating growth) and bad news (concerns that protectionist actions could slow economic growth) influencing the markets. I believe this tug of war will very likely continue going forward, and I’ll be closely watching for more market-moving news this week as new central bank leaders make their debuts.

Continued

Leave a comment

Protectionism tightens its grip


March 13, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

I’ve been warning for some time about the economic dangers of protectionism and the potential for retaliatory policies that could stifle free trade. Last week, this threat intensified – and that was just the tip of the iceberg in a week filled with market-moving news. Below I highlight five critical headlines from last week and preview what’s ahead.

Continued

Leave a comment

The dangers of protectionism


March 6, 2018
Subject | Commodities | Invesco | Macro views

Geo-politics is back in the spotlight, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally securing a governing coalition after nearly six months of uncertainty, while Italy embarks on its own period of uncertainty, given the inconclusive results of its election this past weekend. Italy’s voters are following in the recent footsteps of voters in the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and elsewhere – questioning the “status quo.”

Continued

Leave a comment

Five upcoming events that could drive markets


February 27, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Markets took another roller coaster ride last week. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 2.95% – a level it hasn’t seen in four years – but then moved lower by the end of the week.1 Stocks also vacillated, largely in response to those Treasury yield movements. It appears that markets are unsettled and primed to react to the news of the day – both negatively and positively. Below, I discuss five upcoming events that could possibly be the catalyst for more moves ahead.

Continued

Leave a comment

Good news is bad news: Deconstructing the market sell-off


February 13, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Stocks globally have experienced more than a week of tumultuous trading, with the U.S. stock market officially in correction territory. And after being relatively sedate for years, the VIX Index has risen dramatically in recent days, indicating rising volatility. Stocks have moved so far so fast that investors have experienced financial whiplash and are trying to understand what caused markets to change course so abruptly. To put it simply, almost everything that should be a positive for stocks is now a negative for stocks.

Continued

Leave a comment

Above-trend growth could cause U.S. inflation later in 2018

Employment growth has been strong enough that the Bank of Canada (BOC) hiked its overnight target rate to 1.25% in January.1 The BOC statement attempted to balance the view that growth was near capacity with concerns that raising rates too quickly could cause the economic expansion to stall. The 10-year yield has broken through its previous peak of 2.15% on the growth story and a modest pickup in inflation.2 We believe yields should continue to move higher from these levels.

Continued

Leave a comment

What does market volatility mean for fixed income?

Market expectations of inflation have risen in recent days, after signs of wage growth – often seen as a harbinger of inflation – appeared in the January jobs report. We at Invesco Fixed Income believe investor concerns that inflation is finally showing signs of life have helped drive interest rates higher and impacted credit markets, where worries over higher interest rates (and their potential impact on companies) have caused declines in stock markets and other risky assets.1

Continued

Leave a comment