Invesco

Chinese equities: What is in store for Chinese equities in 2019?

Key takeaways

• We believe Chinese equities represent some of the best structural opportunities across global markets.
• Following the correction in 2018, we believe the risk-reward picture has turned exceptionally favorable.
• We believe corporate fundamentals will remain strong given solid support from the domestic market.

There has been a disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals when it comes to Chinese equities in 2018. Market sentiment has been weak (driven by the changing relationship with the US and moderating growth), while economic fundmentals remained decent. China was on track to deliver its growth target despite moderation, widely known as a result of economic transitioning towards high quality growth.

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Technology: A look at the technologies we believe will define 2019

Key Takeaways

• Artificial intelligence applications will continue to improve, with the ability to digest and analyze ever-increasing amounts of data to drive a better customer experience.
• Companies will begin investing more heavily in the reduced latency, enhanced security and bandwidth savings of edge computing.
• Blockchain and token economics diffuse into the early adopters.
• Companies’ abilities to attract and retain diverse and skilled talent in these emergent technologies, including their physical space and location strategies.

Artificial intelligence and the data wars

The cat is out of the bag

Artificial intelligence (AI) applications are likely to have a profound impact on businesses, markets, and global economies in 2019 and beyond. At the micro level, machine learning and the vast (and growing) amounts of underlying data should continue to improve client experiences through predictive analytics and personalization.

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Global equities: A decade after the global financial crisis, a mixed bag of growth

Key takeaways

• The overvaluation of structural growth stocks, such as technology stocks, is unsustainable, in our view.
• For markets used to easy money, the transition to a more ‘normal’ period for central banks is likely to pose a challenge.
• The European market looks a lot more attractively valued than the US, especially those stocks more sensitive to the direction of the economy, such as banks.

The outlook for global growth has become more mixed. While the synchronised economic expansion that I discussed in this piece last year is less widespread today, it should still be sufficient for corporate earnings to grow. Amid continued regime change – quantitative easing has given way to quantitative tightening, and interest rates are rising – the US continues to press ahead, while there is less momentum elsewhere.

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Putting the sell-off in perspective

Last week saw major swoons in the stock market and U.S. Treasuries. As of this writing, the sell-off has been continuing. However, I still hold out hope that we could see stocks finish higher than where they are now by year-end. Yes, Virginia, there still is the possibility of a “Santa Pause.”

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Stock losses snowball across the globe in a December sell-off

U.S. stocks began a dramatic sell-off on Tuesday that has continued and spread to other parts of the world, creating intense headlines across the globe on Thursday. There has been a flight to the perceived safety of sovereign debt. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell dramatically, from more than 3% at the start of the week to 2.83% as of this writing¹ – and other major sovereign debt yields also followed suit. Some areas of the yield curve inverted, and the 2-year/10-year yield curve is in danger of inverting.

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Bank of Canada walks back from impending rate hike

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% at its December 5 meeting. The tone around the message softened dramatically from the previous meeting in October.

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‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling

As the year-end approaches, many investors with taxable accounts may be seeking to dispose of securities that have lost money. The strategy of tax-loss selling allows the investor to claim a capital loss, which offsets capital gains for the current year. Any unused net capital losses can then be applied against taxable capital gains in any of the three preceding years, or carried forward indefinitely to future years. To realize capital gains and losses in 2018, trades must be executed by Thursday, December 27 to ensure settlement by Monday, December 31, the last business day of 2018.

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Could December be the start of a “Santa Pause” rally for stocks?

When I was in high school, I worked as a lifeguard. I loved the job, but I was always aware of the enormous responsibility that came with it. I found the key to success was to anticipate trouble before it happened – to watch swimmers for any early signs of distress before they ever came close to drowning. Today, I see similarities between lifeguards and policy-makers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which must try to anticipate economic downturns before they start. For the past several weeks, I have written in my blog that signs of a global slowdown are starting to appear. The good news is that policy-makers appear to be reacting to those early signs – which I believe could help spur a “Santa Pause” rally for markets.

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Want to build smart cities? Then we need a new infrastructure financing model

What comes to mind when you hear the term “smart city”? It might be a clean and safe space where people and places are connected by digital technology. Or a place where self-driving cars take us around and pollution is a thing of the past. We all have a vision of what a smart city should be – but for most of us what we imagine is far removed from the cities we actually inhabit, with clogged roads, smoggy days, and outdated infrastructure.

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Central banks to the rescue? Don’t count on it.

Stocks continued to slide last week, and most major indices are negative for the year-to-date period – some having posted double-digit losses. As I noted in my commentary last week, there are hints of an economic slowdown appearing. In this environment, expectations are increasing that central banks may loosen their monetary policy in response, but I’m not sure that central banks will come to the rescue this time. In fact, I believe central banks are more likely to be a risk factor going forward.

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Rate volatility underscores merit of a “boring bond fund”

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost certainly going to raise interest rates in December, but what’s less certain is what comes after that – will 2019 see three rate increases or four?

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During market drops, the Low Volatility factor has outperformed

In 2017, the S&P 500 Index did not experience any corrections greater than 5%. So far in 2018, there have been three such market drops. So which year represents the more typical investor experience? History shows us that the relative calm of 2017 was an outlier, and that losses and volatility are recurring events that investors should be prepared for.

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Despite lower GDP growth, European earnings may accelerate in 2019

For months, Europe has grappled with geopolitical uncertainty in the form of ongoing Brexit negotiations (which face a looming March 2019 deadline) and Italy’s populist coalition government. In this environment, UK companies have appeared less likely to invest – which could lead to lower European growth levels next year.

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Five issues for investors to watch

Last week, the U.S. experienced a deepening split in political leadership, which dominated headlines. And yet, that was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of events that are impacting global markets. Below, I recap five key events from last week and highlight five issues to watch moving forward, including whether there are grounds for new alliances among U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democratic House.

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U.S.-China spat underscores value of investing in quality

There was news out last Friday that U.S. President Donald Trump has directed his cabinet to start crafting a new trade agreement with China.¹ With my focus on emerging markets, this is welcome news, as the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies has cast uncertainty over the markets.

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The U.S. midterm results are in, but what do they mean for markets?

Going into yesterday’s U.S. midterm elections, our base case scenario was that Democrats would take the House while Republicans would retain the Senate. That has come to fruition, and has had an initially supportive effect on markets, with U.S. stocks and bonds supported and the dollar weaker. This U.S. market response has in effect eased global financial conditions, supporting other currencies and financial markets in general, including emerging markets.

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Anticipating the U.S. midterm results

October has come to an end – and what a miserable month it was for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 5%, the S&P 500 Index lost 6.9% (its worst month in seven years) and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 9.2% (its worst month since November 2008).¹ Looking beyond the U.S., the MSCI EAFE Index gave up 8% during the month while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 8.7%.¹ And beyond stocks, major bond indices, such as the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index and the FTSE Russell Emerging Markets Broad Bond Index, also gave up some ground.¹ Real estate investment trusts lost 3% as represented by the MSCI REIT US Index, while commodities lost 2% as represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index.¹ One of the few bright spots in October was gold, with spot prices rising 2.8%.¹

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Shining the EQV spotlight on China and Japan

During the third quarter, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) remained in active easing mode and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index reached a 27-year high. Supportive monetary policy and strong momentum can often be positive indicators for markets. However, in our analysis of recent events and likely catalysts for future direction, the Invesco International and Global Growth team continues to seek opportunities but believes both markets face obstacles that could impact future performance.

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The Rise of Robots

How the fourth industrial revolution will transform economics, politics, and more

After two centuries of industrial transformation and change, we’ve reached what many now call the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It’s marked not by the introduction of steam power or the advent of mass production but by the rise of artificial intelligence and automation that will fundamentally transform the global division of labour.

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October lives up to its frightening reputation for investors

Once again, the month of October has been living up to its frightful reputation for wreaking havoc on stock prices: 1929 and 1987 are prime examples, and we can now safely say that 2018 will also go down in history as an illustration of October’s ability to scare investors. Unfortunately, I don’t foresee this volatility easing too much over the next few weeks.

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