Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Central banks take centre stage


June 19, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Central banks took centre stage last week, with a trifecta of major central bank meetings. The clear theme was that most major banks are at least taking small steps toward monetary policy normalization. However, the central banks that are tightening may be caught by surprise if the trade situation worsens – which I believe is a strong possibility.

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Federal Reserve hikes with upbeat outlook

The U.S. Federal Open Market committee (Fed) continued their recent gradual hiking cycle by increasing the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points at today’s meeting. The target range after the hike is now 1.75%-2.00%. The financial markets had been fully expecting today’s move.

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Protectionism rears its ugly head again


June 5, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The global trade environment seriously worsened last week as the U.S. applied aluminum and steel tariffs to Canada, Mexico and the European Union (EU). Just a few days before, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he is exploring tariffs of up to 25% on imported cars. In my view, this is a very negative development that has implications for the global economy for several different reasons:

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Is Italy headed for an EU exit?


May 30, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

We have devoted much time in this weekly blog to geopolitical risks. However, I have tried to stress that geopolitical risk, while disruptive, tends not to impact fundamentals – although it can certainly create a lot of turmoil in capital markets in the shorter term. A case in point is the current political situation in Italy, which has worsened over the last few days and thrown into question the country’s future with the European Union (EU).

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What do higher oil prices mean for the stock market?


May 23, 2018
Subject | Commodities | Invesco | Macro views

In the past few weeks, the price of a barrel of oil has risen to its highest level in the last several years, and I believe it is poised to move higher. Lately, I’ve been asked quite a bit about what this means for the stock market. While high oil prices may have an effect on certain sectors and industries, I believe the far greater impact would be indirect – and could happen in several different ways.

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Is the ‘synchronized’ global expansion really in sync?


May 8, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

“Getting long in the tooth” is an interesting way to describe something that is getting old and presumably nearing its end – it refers to the long-time practice of estimating a horse’s age by looking at its mouth. I’ve found myself using this expression a lot these days, as the U.S. experiences its second-longest economic expansion in the last 100 years. But investors should remember that – even as market-watchers talk about “synchronized global growth” – other economies are in much earlier stages of expansion.

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Five takeaways from April and five things to watch in May


May 2, 2018
Subject | Macro views

As April came to a close, we learned some key lessons this month about the likely path forward for central banks, the growing concerns about protectionism, and the market’s sensitivity to any changes in key indicators. Below, I highlight five key takeaways from April, and preview five things to watch in May.

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Yield signs: Deconstructing a key market indicator


April 24, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The biggest news of last week was not a tweet, but a Treasury yield – specifically the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which rose significantly last week, to 2.95%.1 As of this writing on Monday, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.98%, very close to the key 3% level it has not seen in more than four years.1 But what is this key market indicator telling us? And why do people care?

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As U.S.-China trade drama continues, is a risk-off stance warranted?


April 10, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week saw an acceleration of the protectionist rhetoric between the U.S. and China. The week ended on a down note, with U.S. President Donald Trump tweeting a proposal for another $100 billion in tariffs, swiftly followed by China, despite its important holiday, promising to match the most recent round of tariffs and fight the U.S. “at any cost.” Following China’s threat, Trump admitted that the U.S. may feel some “pain,” while U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin conceded that, though unlikely, “there is the potential of a trade war.”

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Five things to watch in April


April 3, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The first quarter of the year has ended with major developed market indices down slightly and major emerging market indices up slightly. But those numbers belie a very turbulent period in which stocks were whipsawed. Bonds also experienced gyrations, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury moving from 2.41% at the start of the quarter to a peak of 2.94% and ending at 2.74%.1 As we begin the second quarter, there are five critical things to watch.

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Tariffs, trade war concerns help spark equity market sell-off


March 27, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

It seems we are beginning to smell the faint hint of fear in markets. Not only did stocks sell off globally last week, but investors also fled to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, which drove the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.817% – a level not seen in weeks. Last week’s market rout was the worst week for stocks in two years.

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The increasing role of technology


March 26, 2018
Subject | Active management | Macro views | Trimark

There was a time when asset managers could largely be agnostic to technology. The common justifications were that the space was too esoteric, dynamic and generally difficult to understand. While there is some truth behind these sentiments, the increasing pervasiveness of technology into our lives and into the business models of most enterprises means that avoiding technology has shifted from abscondment to perilousness.

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Why truly active managers aren’t afraid of rising rates

With interest rates starting to rise, many investors are wondering what impact, if any, the move upward might have on their portfolios. We asked Marina Pomerantz, a portfolio manager on the Trimark Global Equities team and Neeraj Khosla, an investment analyst covering emerging-market (EM) equities for the same team, for their views on the current interest-rate environment.

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The Fed stays the course under its new leader

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as expected on Wednesday and signaled two more rate hikes for 2018. It also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for the next few years, which suggests that the Fed is optimistic regarding the future performance of the U.S. economy.

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Revolving headlines lead to a tug of war for stocks


March 20, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Across the globe, stocks experienced a tug of war last week, with good news (positive earnings and other signs of accelerating growth) and bad news (concerns that protectionist actions could slow economic growth) influencing the markets. I believe this tug of war will very likely continue going forward, and I’ll be closely watching for more market-moving news this week as new central bank leaders make their debuts.

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