Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Will the global stock sell-off continue?


October 16, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

It was yet another week in which I felt like we lived 100 weeks. Of course the biggest event was the stock market sell-off. U.S. stocks led what became a global sell-off, which slowed and actually began to reverse on Friday. The key question on investors’ minds is: Is this over? Or will stocks lose more ground? Before we can gauge the likelihood of this sell-off continuing, we must understand its origins. There were two catalysts for the stock market drop – and they are the two key risks I have been warning about for more than a year: U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) normalization and trade.

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U.S. stocks plunge in tech-fueled rout


October 11, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks fell dramatically, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 800 points. The rout was led by technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite Index down 316 points, but all sectors experienced losses.1 This was the worst one-day sell-off for U.S. stocks since February. For much of the day, bonds sold off as well but, by the end of the day, investors fled to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries, sending yields lower.

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Currency outlook: Convergence of global economic forces may cause weakening of U.S. dollar


October 3, 2018
Subject | Macro views

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada were resolved on September 30. The resolution reduces a major headwind for the Canadian economy. Second quarter GDP growth showed a rebound from first quarter weakness, and the positive outcome on trade should increase future growth estimates at the margin.

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Europe: 5 Scenarios for Investors to Watch


October 3, 2018
Subject | Industry views | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The future of the euro and that of the EU are inextricably tied according to our latest white paper, I co-authored with Jacek Rostowski, a former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Poland. The big question for us is how could today’s political landscape impact the region in the coming months and years – and what does that mean for investors?

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Five things to watch in October

Perhaps the biggest news of the last week was the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-making arm of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). As expected, the Fed raised interest rates. But what was far more interesting were the hints provided about the future. In this blog, I discuss my outlook for the Fed and highlight five issues to watch in October.

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Fed continues gradual hikes

The U.S. Federal Open Market committee (Fed) hiked the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point at Wednesdays meeting. This is the third rate hike this year, putting the new target range at 2.00%-2.25%. The market had fully priced in today’s move well ahead of the meeting.

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Stocks shrug off rising geopolitical risks


September 25, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week brought bad news on trade and Brexit, yet stocks globally shrugged off the news and rose higher. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index hit new highs (albeit on low breadth), while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond surpassed the key 3% level.1 Because the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to be a far more accurate fear gauge than any equity indicators (such as the VIX), I can’t help but be fixated on a few questions: Why did the 10-year yield rise? And where will it go from here?

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Trade remains the top concern for global markets


September 11, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Every week I hope that there are no new trade developments, so that for at least one week I can spare you all from a trade discussion in this blog. Unfortunately, this is not that week – there were many trade developments over the past few days, and I feel compelled to discuss them because I firmly believe the trade situation poses a significant risk to the economy and markets.

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When numbers aren’t enough


September 10, 2018
Subject | Industry views | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

ESG investors must demand more than headlines from their asset managers 

Ever since the United Nations-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) introduced the term ESG integration back in 2006, the investment industry has sought to make it easier to identify which companies are addressing environmental, social and governance issues and which ones aren’t hitting the mark. That search has led to a proliferation of assessment tools that purport to add clarity for asset owners but instead have reduced the ESG engagement process to box-ticking. It’s an exercise that doesn’t generate any meaningful insights for investors looking to do the right thing.

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Reading the tea leaves from the central banks


August 28, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

What did we learn last week from the central banks, trade talks and the markets?

Last week gave us a look into the thoughts of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) as Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a widely anticipated speech, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its most recent meeting. Some of the messages were clear, while other statements required observers to read between the lines. Below are five key takeaways from last week, and five items I’m watching going forward:

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Factor Investing: The Third Pillar of Portfolio Construction

Even though it’s been around since the 1950s, factor investing is only just now gaining a toehold in the portfolios of some of Canada’s most sophisticated pension portfolios. As that happens, plan sponsors can gain a new window into asset allocation to better understand how their portfolios work in different market conditions.

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What currency pressures in Turkey and other countries may mean for investors


August 14, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Activity in currency markets has more than tripled in the last two decades. Between 2001 and 2016, global turnover in currency markets rose from $1.2 trillion to $5.1 trillion,1 and the geopolitical disruption of the last two years has increased currency activity even further. Last week brought several significant examples of this trend in the U.K., China, Iran and – most dramatically – Turkey. Is this a sign of more disruption to come?

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