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Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
August 20, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Last week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate and the 2-year U.S. Treasury rate, briefly inverted. An inverted yield curve is considered to be a good predictor of recession, and so markets sold off on fears that a recession will occur in the next year. However, I believe a U.S. recession is not a foregone conclusion — and so we should monitor the economic data closely. I have received a number of questions from clients and the media about what other indicators to follow to help divine how the economy is doing. The following are just a few indicators to watch — and some caveats:

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Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession?


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
August 14, 2019
Subject | Macro views

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate and the 2-year U.S. Treasury rate, briefly inverted on the morning of Aug. 14. As of early afternoon, the spread was roughly 1 to 2 basis points wide. The brief inversion follows the inversions earlier this year between the spread of short-term rates (such as the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill) and the benchmark 10-year rate.

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Argentina’s presidential primary raises policy questions


August 14, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Argentina’s presidential primary elections shocked investors Sunday when President Mauricio Macri suffered a major defeat against leftist politician Alberto Fernandez, whose running mate is controversial former president Cristina Kirchner. According to the official election results, Macri received 32% support while Fernandez received 48%, a much wider margin than expected. Election authorities reported high voter turnout at 75%, and Fernandez won every province except Cordoba and the City of Buenos Aires.

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Dovish central banks to shape late 2019 markets


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
August 13, 2019
Subject | Macro views

As the Federal Reserve joins the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan in rolling out new stimulus measures, global central banks are making their marks on the investment outlook for the remainder of 2019.

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You can’t train a great white shark – or control global trade


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
August 12, 2019
Subject | Macro views

One of my all-time favorite movies is “Jaws,” an iconic American summer movie about a great white shark that terrorizes a seaside New England resort town. Maybe it’s because I like the musical score, or maybe it’s because I like hearing my last name interspersed throughout the movie (a particularly noteworthy line is “Hooper drives the boat, Chief”), but I can be found watching the movie at least several times each summer. In fact, I like the movie so much that I’ve watched documentaries and read articles about the making of “Jaws.” My husband thought that was a strange and ridiculous waste of time, but I actually learned some very interesting factoids.

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Stock market sell-off underscores trade war dangers


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
August 6, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Monday’s significant market sell-off reflected fears about escalating trade tensions, which caused investors to panic. This sell-off should not come as a surprise to those who recognized that stocks were vulnerable because the market wasn’t fully pricing in trade tensions. I view this as a healthy re-pricing of stocks to more fully factor in the potential that the trade war is likely to drag on.

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