On Oct. 11, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and China have agreed in principle to what is being characterized as the first phase of a trade accord. Here are seven key takeaways about the agreement:
Comments Off on What investors need to know about the U.S.-China trade accordThe investing world is understandably focused on the U.S. After all, it’s the biggest economy, has the largest stock market, is home to the some of the best-known companies and, admittedly, the political spectacle in Washington can be entertaining at times. As a result, the U.S. frequently steals the limelight from its neighbor to the north.
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On Saturday evening, Oct. 20, 1973, U.S. President Richard Nixon ordered Attorney General Elliot Richardson, Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelhaus, and Solicitor General Robert Bork to fire independent special prosecutor Archibald Cox, resulting in the resignations of Richardson and Ruckelhaus and the dismissal of Cox. In the month after this so-called “Saturday Night Massacre,” the U.S. equity market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, fell by more than 10%.1 By the time Nixon resigned almost a year later, U.S. equities had fallen by 26%, and ultimately by 39% at the trough.1
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One of the key themes I have been discussing in the last several years is geopolitical disruption – and we got a heavy dose of it last week. However, one of my main points over the past few years is that investors should try to identify the geopolitical disruption that really matters for the economy and markets, and ignore the events that are just background noise (most fall into this category, in my view). In particular, issues that can increase economic policy uncertainty are what we need to be sensitive to, as they can have significant consequences for economies and markets. Below, I assess today’s three major headlines and where they fall on the spectrum of “news versus noise” in relation to their potential longer-term impact on the markets.
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Many investors may be facing a catch-22 situation in their portfolios. Recent strong returns in the global bond market may have pushed their fixed income weighting beyond their strategic allocation. But the return of equity market volatility may leave them wary of re-allocating their bond gains into stocks.
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I am the mother of three, including a 13-year-old girl and a 12-year-old boy. Like many American children their age, they spent the last several months obsessed with an urban myth surrounding Area 51. Many conspiracy theorists believe that Area 51, a secretive Air Force base in Nevada, is being used by the U.S. military to house aliens. One creative guy thought it would be funny to start an online movement to storm Area 51 this past weekend. What began as a joke gathered steam quickly, and 2 million people signed up to force entry into Area 51. That huge response created great excitement and anticipation about what the event would bring.
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