As we enter year two of the market recovery, investors face a new set of concerns. Has the economy become too hot, too fast? Are we headed for out-of-control inflation? What are the investment implications of all this?
Comments Off on Welcome to year two of the stock market recovery
As we say good riddance to 2020, we enter 2021 with a confidence that new market and business cycles have arisen. We believe the economy, out of the depths of the COVID-induced recession, has entered what will be a protracted recovery, complete with the inevitable fits and starts, as experienced at the end of 2020. It may be years before the U.S. returns to its full productive capabilities and full employment has been restored. Nonetheless, we believe the markets will be focused on the improvements in economic activity in the coming years.
Comments Off on 2021 U.S. outlook: The recovery takes hold
To assess whether a prolonged “risk-on” environment has emerged, it is important to focus on what we know about market cycles. While no two market cycles are identical, they tend to follow similar patterns. This time has been no different, the global pandemic notwithstanding.
Comments Off on Today’s “risk on” environment may be here for the long term
In the months since the initial coronavirus outbreak, we saw the economy and markets teeter on the brink of collapse, only to recover quickly. I recently sat down with my colleague and Investment Strategist, Talley Leger, to discuss the sustainability of this recent recovery.
Comments Off on The two-sided recovery: A conversation about the markets and economy
To retest or not to retest – that is the question. Indeed, if Hamlet were around today he may be wondering whether the broad U.S. equity market, after posting the second best 25-day rally on record (trailing only 2009’s), will retest the initial market low hit on March 23 of this year.1 To many investment professionals, a retest of the market bottom is a foregone conclusion. In fact, a poll of financial advisors conducted in early April revealed that 81% expected the U.S. equity market to retest the March 23 low.2
Comments Off on Why there’s little point in asking whether the stock market will retest lows
The yield curve has been a constant topic of conversation among investors since mid-August, when the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve briefly inverted and launched furious speculation that a recession may be around the corner. The same holds true among Invesco’s market strategists, who have been debating what an inverted yield curve means and whether a recession is indeed inevitable.
Comments Off on Is a U.S. recession inevitable?
