Market drawdowns are never fun. But for all the hand wringing over the current market downturn and the pain in the long-duration trade, let’s not forget that in many ways, this is playing out as we had hoped. It was only one year ago when the first case of the SARS-CoV-2 appeared in my home state of New Jersey. If you had told me then that 12 months later the U.S. economy would produce 379,000 jobs in the prior month,1 the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would be flirting with 1.60%,2 and the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven would be over 2.2%,3 then I would have slept much better that night.
Comments Off on I’m not concerned about long-term inflation. Here’s why.