It’s hard to imagine the economic data getting worse, and yet the U.S. equity market has posted the second best 20-day rally on record.
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Recent market volatility has elicited a flurry of questions from advisors and investors alike.
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The last few days have reminded us of the efficacy of policy, even in times of great uncertainty.
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The roadmap to recovery suggests that markets in the near term are likely to continue to be volatile and the markets may even retest prior lows.
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Chuck Noland, Tom Hanks’ character in the movie Cast Away, may have perfectly captured the mood we need to bring to these challenging times, when he said, “I gotta keep breathing. Because tomorrow the sun will rise. Who knows what the tide could bring?”
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Rocky Balboa said, “You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain’t about how hard ya hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done.”
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Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt provides additional perspective on the impact of the coronavirus.
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Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt provides perspective on the impact of the coronavirus and oil price wars.
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Investors with a 50-year investment horizon will live through, if history is any guide, 14 bear markets over the course of their investing lives.1 That’s a bear market once every 3.57 years.2 History would also suggest that during those bear markets, investors should expect their equity portfolio to lose, on average, 32% (median 28.8%).3 It’s almost enough to make investors wonder why they put money in equities at all. Yet, stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, returned, on average, 10.5% per year over the past 50 years.4 That’s a doubling of their investments, on average, every 6.9 years, notwithstanding all the bear markets.5
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It wasn’t long ago that the ink was drying on our 2020 outlook. In it, we touted the conclusion of the third major policy-driven growth scare (along with 2012’s European debt crisis and 2015’s Federal Reserve [Fed] rate hike) of the elongated business and credit cycle. Stable growth and supportive policy were to be the theme of 2020. The Fed had already overturned the 2018 rate hikes and had successfully eased financial conditions, while the Trump administration had inked a Phase 1 trade deal with China. China, for its part, was working to stimulate its economy. The January reading of the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, as good of a leading indicator of economic activity as any other, would have traditionally been viewed by us as a resounding affirmation that the growth scare had passed. “Risk on!” we would have rejoiced.
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On Thursday evening, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, General Qassim Suleimani, was killed in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. The strike, which was authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, represents a potentially dangerous escalation in the growing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran.
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On Saturday evening, Oct. 20, 1973, U.S. President Richard Nixon ordered Attorney General Elliot Richardson, Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelhaus, and Solicitor General Robert Bork to fire independent special prosecutor Archibald Cox, resulting in the resignations of Richardson and Ruckelhaus and the dismissal of Cox. In the month after this so-called “Saturday Night Massacre,” the U.S. equity market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, fell by more than 10%.1 By the time Nixon resigned almost a year later, U.S. equities had fallen by 26%, and ultimately by 39% at the trough.1
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As we embarked on this year, I expected 2019 to be the year of slower growth but better policy. And that, I posited, would be better for financial markets than 2018’s combination of strong growth and bad policy, specifically Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and trade tariffs.
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Market gyrations can make investors want to run, but history shows stocks’ ability to overcome these concerns
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Kristina: As of July 1, the U.S. business cycle has set a new record for longevity. It’s a significant milestone, to be sure, but what does it really mean for investors? The answer might not be what you think. To help put this cycle into context, I’m turning over this edition of Weekly Market Compass to my colleague Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist for North America.
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