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Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Brian Levitt

What to make of stocks entering bear-market territory


March 12, 2020
Subject | Coronavirus impact | Macro views

Investors with a 50-year investment horizon will live through, if history is any guide, 14 bear markets over the course of their investing lives.1 That’s a bear market once every 3.57 years.2 History would also suggest that during those bear markets, investors should expect their equity portfolio to lose, on average, 32% (median 28.8%).3 It’s almost enough to make investors wonder why they put money in equities at all. Yet, stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, returned, on average, 10.5% per year over the past 50 years.4 That’s a doubling of their investments, on average, every 6.9 years, notwithstanding all the bear markets.5

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Coronavirus knocked our 2020 outlook off track. But maybe not for long.


March 3, 2020
Subject | Coronavirus impact | Macro views

It wasn’t long ago that the ink was drying on our 2020 outlook. In it, we touted the conclusion of the third major policy-driven growth scare (along with 2012’s European debt crisis and 2015’s Federal Reserve [Fed] rate hike) of the elongated business and credit cycle. Stable growth and supportive policy were to be the theme of 2020. The Fed had already overturned the 2018 rate hikes and had successfully eased financial conditions, while the Trump administration had inked a Phase 1 trade deal with China. China, for its part, was working to stimulate its economy. The January reading of the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, as good of a leading indicator of economic activity as any other, would have traditionally been viewed by us as a resounding affirmation that the growth scare had passed. “Risk on!” we would have rejoiced.

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What does Qassim Suleimani’s death mean for the market?


January 7, 2020
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

On Thursday evening, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, General Qassim Suleimani, was killed in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. The strike, which was authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, represents a potentially dangerous escalation in the growing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran.

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Past presidential turmoil didn’t keep stocks down for long


October 8, 2019
Subject | Macro views

On Saturday evening, Oct. 20, 1973, U.S. President Richard Nixon ordered Attorney General Elliot Richardson, Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelhaus, and Solicitor General Robert Bork to fire independent special prosecutor Archibald Cox, resulting in the resignations of Richardson and Ruckelhaus and the dismissal of Cox. In the month after this so-called “Saturday Night Massacre,” the U.S. equity market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, fell by more than 10%.1 By the time Nixon resigned almost a year later, U.S. equities had fallen by 26%, and ultimately by 39% at the trough.1

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It’s time to trade in uncertainty for stability


August 29, 2019
Subject | Macro views

As we embarked on this year, I expected 2019 to be the year of slower growth but better policy. And that, I posited, would be better for financial markets than 2018’s combination of strong growth and bad policy, specifically Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and trade tariffs.

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The U.S. cycle breaks a record. So now what?


July 2, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Kristina: As of July 1, the U.S. business cycle has set a new record for longevity. It’s a significant milestone, to be sure, but what does it really mean for investors? The answer might not be what you think. To help put this cycle into context, I’m turning over this edition of Weekly Market Compass to my colleague Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist for North America.

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