Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Interest-rate outlook: Excess pessimism in U.K.

During the recent rate rally, the Canadian 10-year government bond yield held at 1.45% and has bounced slightly from there, but still remains at the lower end of its recent range.1 Economic data has tapered off from the strong rebound seen in the first quarter and the Bank of Canada continues to keep monetary policy on hold. The U.S.’s recently imposed tariffs on Canadian softwood exports raised concerns about broader trade implications. In addition, a Canadian subprime mortgage lender has experienced a liquidity drain, drawing attention to an area of the mortgage market that is not typically in the news. We would expect Canadian yields to remain supported in any sell-off.

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Interest-rate outlook: Impact of upcoming British election

The yield on the 10-year Canadian government bond broke through its recent range of 1.60%-1.87%, reaching a low of 1.43% on April 18.1 Geopolitical risks, as well as concerns about elections in France were the big driver as the economic data in Canada has been fairly positive.

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Interest-rate outlook as global growth improves

The 10-year Canadian government bond yield has retreated from its 2017 peak yield of 1.87% and currently sits in the middle of this year’s range of 1.61% – 1.87%.1 Economic data has generally been picking up this year with employment growth showing particular strength. The Bank of Canada has kept policy on hold recently, but remains wary of persistent economic slack. We believe the current trading range is likely to persist unless global economic growth picks up further.

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BoC holds rates, boosts 2017 growth forecast

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today that the target overnight rate would remain at 0.5%. The tone of the statement was generally upbeat and less dovish than the last statement, released on March 1.

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Third time’s a charm

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its key interest rate by 0.25% today, to a range of 0.75%–1.00%, marking the third increase in the current cycle. Fixed income markets had essentially priced in the increase two weeks ago, when nearly every Fed speaker acknowledged that a March hike appeared to be warranted. The vote was not unanimous as Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, voted against the action, preferring to keep the target rate unchanged at this meeting.

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Interest-rate outlook: Fed hikes on the horizon?

Yields on Canadian government bonds have hovered in a range this year as the global yield sell-off has paused. The yield curve remains in a steepening trend as the Bank of Canada has attempted to keep the possibility of a rate cut on the table, although a recent string of positive employment surprises has made that possibility less likely. Canadian government bond yields are likely to remain range-bound in the near term until more certainty emerges around global economic prospects.

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Interest-rate outlook: The aftermath of Trump’s win

Canadian government yields have remained under the same upward pressure felt globally in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election which boosted expectations of higher growth and inflation fueled by U.S. fiscal stimulus and tax cuts. The Bank of Canada meeting in January recognized that Canada’s economy has shown some improvement, but emphasized there was more work needed to reduce excess capacity as inflation remains very low.

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BoC holds rates amid Trump policy uncertainty

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today that the overnight policy rate remained unchanged at 0.5%. There wasn’t much suspense heading into today’s monetary policy meeting as economic data had shown at least some improvement recently and a rate cut did not appear warranted.

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The Fed finally hikes rates – what does it mean?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked rates 0.25% today, for only the second time in this cycle, to a range of 0.5% – 0.75%. The statement that accompanied the meeting made note of a strengthening of the labour market, moderate growth and improving inflation. Additionally, the Fed views risks to the economy as “roughly balanced”.

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BoC holds rate, but downgrades growth outlook

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.5% Wednesday. Generally the tone of the meeting was dovish as Bank Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged that the Governing Council actively discussed the possibility of adding additional monetary stimulus at the meeting as economic slack continues to exert downward pressure on inflation. In spite of that acknowledgement, the Bank did not indicate that a future rate cut was imminent.

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Fed holds rate, signals likely December hike

Today’s much-awaited Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and press conference came and went with what I’d describe as few surprises. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged (target range of 0.25% – 0.50%) but saw three Federal Reserve Bank presidents (Esther L. George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren) cast dissenting votes in favour of a hike.

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BoC holds rate, opens the door to future cuts

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced yesterday that it is maintaining the target overnight rate at 0.5%. The decision to leave the overnight rate unchanged was generally expected by the market, but the BoC statement included language that was more dovish than previous releases.

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