Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

U.S. election year seasonal effects and low interest rates support stocks


September 23, 2020
Subject | Coronavirus impact | Macro views

In mid-June, we began cautioning that the high-velocity, v-shaped recovery in stocks from their March lows was producing tactically overbought conditions, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback.1 Fast-forward to early-September and the S&P 500 Index began what now appears to be an abrupt risk-shedding event, centered on the high-flying growth and technology stocks.

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Fire is the test of gold


September 2, 2020
Subject | Commodities | Coronavirus impact | Macro views

After almost doubling since its cycle low in December 2015, the price of gold witnessed a violent shakeout of over 7% in early August. Has the fundamental outlook for the yellow metal changed or should investors buy the recent dip? To answer those questions, we study some of the major drivers of gold prices, starting with sentiment.

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Answers to pressing questions from investors


July 23, 2020
Subject | Macro views

We were joined recently by clients for a discussion about global investment opportunities, in the context of technically overbought conditions in US stocks. In this blog, we share our views regarding where we see risks and opportunities in international stocks.

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Near-term pullback, long-term uptrend

On March 13, 2020, we began talking1 and writing2 about a series of tactical market bottom indicators3 that showed signs of extreme risk-off positioning, which were positive from a contrarian perspective. One of those indicators was the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) equity put/call ratio. Little did we know it at the time, but ten days later, the S&P 500 Index would put in what now appears to be a major low for the cycle.

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Portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario

In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action.

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5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

As the world remains in the grip of the coronavirus, we’ve received many questions about the outlook for Chinese and emerging market (EM) stocks – as China was ground zero for the pandemic. First and foremost, we’re asked what the challenges and opportunities are for that country and region?

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Chaos can create opportunities

Heading into 2020, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing and risk assets were benefiting from the cyclical rebound in activity.
 
In recent months, however, the coronavirus has delivered a significant external shock to Chinese and global economic activity at a vulnerable stage of the business cycle.
 
Meanwhile, markets are reacting to the contagion and associated loss of output with a dramatic repricing of risk across a wide array of assets.
 
The S&P 500 Index has fallen almost 30% from its all-time high in February,1 culminating in the highest percentage increase in equity volatility of the cycle and in the history of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX).

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Is long-term Canadian equity underperformance coming to an end?


October 10, 2019
Subject | Macro views

The investing world is understandably focused on the U.S. After all, it’s the biggest economy, has the largest stock market, is home to the some of the best-known companies and, admittedly, the political spectacle in Washington can be entertaining at times. As a result, the U.S. frequently steals the limelight from its neighbor to the north.

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European Central Bank