Are stocks already sniffing out an economic recession?
Equity strategist Talley Léger explores a tail risk scenario for markets — the probability of which may be increasing.
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Equity strategist Talley Léger explores a tail risk scenario for markets — the probability of which may be increasing.
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Equity strategist Talley Léger discusses one of his preferred gauges for assessing where we are in the U.S. corporate profit cycle — and what it’s telling investors today.
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In response to hot inflation and high commodity prices, the Bank of Canada decided to raise its key rate by 25 basis points today – the first increase since 2018. Talley Léger shares the market reaction, potential risks, and why it’s important to investors.
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The Fed’s hawkish pivot is on many investors’ minds, and with good reason. Talley Léger answers these top questions from clients about stock market performance during Fed tightening cycles.
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Despite the lowest jobless rate since early 2020 and the fastest inflation since the early 1990s, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to keep the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% in today’s announcement. Moreover, the Bank said it will continue its reinvestment program, through which it will buy Government of Canada (GoC) bonds only to replace maturing securities, thereby keeping its overall holdings at a relatively high level for now.
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Emerging market underperformance has entered a late stage, but Talley Léger says potential opportunities have begun to present themselves across the region.
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Consumers are understandably vocal about inflation’s hit to their pocketbooks. But Talley Léger believes investors can potentially benefit in both hot and cold inflation environments.
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Investors are feeling fearful about several issues. But Talley Léger believes inflation, Chinese growth concerns, and coronavirus cases should become less scary as time goes on.
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Cyclical stocks have surged off their early-2020 lows, but Talley Leger believes there’s still room to run. Learn more about his outlook for cyclical stocks.
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After a year of weakening business fundamentals, earnings may be kicking into high gear. What does this mean for stocks?
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It’s hard to believe that roughly one year has passed since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Equally astonishing is the fact that the broad U.S. stock market has kept pressing to new highs, alongside forceful blasts of central bank liquidity and government stimulus checks.
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The not-so-mighty “buck” continues to face long-term challenges, which may remain favourable for international stocks.
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The answer to that question depends on the reason why interest rates are rising. If it’s because real economic growth is picking up, that should be good for stocks through the earnings channel. If it’s because inflation is getting out of control, that should be bad for stocks through the valuation channel.
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Since the dark days of March and April, I have remained steadfast in looking across the valley to better times ahead, and this time is no exception. Regardless of near-term turbulence, I continue to favour portfolio positioning for optimistic, long-term outcomes by emphasizing the “recovery” trade and embracing cyclicality. Fortunately, key barometers of global growth have validated this positive outlook.
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In mid-June, we began cautioning that the high-velocity, v-shaped recovery in stocks from their March lows was producing tactically overbought conditions, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback.1 Fast-forward to early-September and the S&P 500 Index began what now appears to be an abrupt risk-shedding event, centered on the high-flying growth and technology stocks.
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After almost doubling since its cycle low in December 2015, the price of gold witnessed a violent shakeout of over 7% in early August. Has the fundamental outlook for the yellow metal changed or should investors buy the recent dip? To answer those questions, we study some of the major drivers of gold prices, starting with sentiment.
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We were joined recently by clients for a discussion about global investment opportunities, in the context of technically overbought conditions in US stocks. In this blog, we share our views regarding where we see risks and opportunities in international stocks.
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On March 13, 2020, we began talking1 and writing2 about a series of tactical market bottom indicators3 that showed signs of extreme risk-off positioning, which were positive from a contrarian perspective. One of those indicators was the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) equity put/call ratio. Little did we know it at the time, but ten days later, the S&P 500 Index would put in what now appears to be a major low for the cycle.
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In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action.
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As the world remains in the grip of the coronavirus, we’ve received many questions about the outlook for Chinese and emerging market (EM) stocks – as China was ground zero for the pandemic. First and foremost, we’re asked what the challenges and opportunities are for that country and region?
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