Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Global real estate: A generally positive outlook, but balancing growth opportunities with risk mitigation is key

Economic growth has begun to moderate worldwide, as expected, but remains adequate to support real estate demand. Heading into 2020, real estate appears more attractively priced relative to other asset classes than it did in early 2019 amidst even lower long-term government bond rates, which in turn may drive additional capital into the sector as investors widen their search for yield-bearing assets. While some risks have begun to recede (namely, upward pressures on inflation and interest rates), other geopolitical risks have crystalized to such a degree that our execution strategies have evolved to mitigate against them.

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Real estate: The outlook for real estate fundamentals is positive, but risks remain

Key takeaways

  • Risks today are crystallizing; many are more global in nature.
  • Pricing remains attractive; however, yield/cap rate compression is largely behind us.
  • Total returns in 2019 are likely to be driven by net operating income growth.

Strong growth in developed economies should continue to support favorable real estate fundamentals in the near term. The baseline scenario remains very positive, and global listed equities’ earnings yields are providing a positive spread over local government bonds, a sign that real estate is still fairly priced. Yet macro risks to the outlook are perhaps now greater today than in prior years; many are increasingly global in nature. They include rising populism, an escalation of the US-China trade war, a monetary policy normalization misstep, a disorderly Brexit or a China debt crisis.  Should any one of them materialize, it would have the potential to derail the global growth outlook to a measurable degree.

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city planning, real estate

2018 Investment Outlook: More markets are thriving, but it’s critical to understand regional nuances

An increasingly synchronized economic upswing, the first since the global financial crisis, continues to support real estate market fundamentals around the world. More markets are now doing well, notably several in Continental Europe. This is a great positive and is creating opportunities for real estate investors.

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Outlook 2017: Real estate themes to watch

Investors have been drawn to real assets in general and to real estate in particular due to the comparative stability and attractiveness of their income returns and the prospects for growth.

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