Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Argentina’s presidential primary raises policy questions


August 14, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Argentina’s presidential primary elections shocked investors Sunday when President Mauricio Macri suffered a major defeat against leftist politician Alberto Fernandez, whose running mate is controversial former president Cristina Kirchner. According to the official election results, Macri received 32% support while Fernandez received 48%, a much wider margin than expected. Election authorities reported high voter turnout at 75%, and Fernandez won every province except Cordoba and the City of Buenos Aires.

Continued

Comments Off on Argentina’s presidential primary raises policy questions

Measure twice, cut once: Fed delivers expected cut


August 1, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% for the first time in over a decade,1 a move largely expected by the market. Heading into the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, much of the debate was around whether or not the Fed would deliver 25 or 50 basis points. However, we were focused on the statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for further insight on future policy. Future policy, or the Fed’s reaction function, is particularly important as we navigate in an environment where we believe market pricing indicates more cuts than our economic outlook would imply.2

Continued

Comments Off on Measure twice, cut once: Fed delivers expected cut

Don’t be so negative: Finding value in U.S. corporate bonds


July 25, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

As yields across the globe plummet, many investors are now actually paying someone to take their money. Currently, there are more than US$12 trillion of bonds with negative yields outstanding which equal 24% of the global bond market.1 In Europe, the search for positive yield is especially challenging. Over half (51%) of the European bond market now yields a negative rate.1 Germany recently issued €5 billion of bunds at a price of €101.5, but these will only return €100 in two years with zero coupons paid.2 And according to Reuters, Austria is also rumoured to be planning to issue a 100-year bond at roughly 1% to feed yield-hungry investors.

Continued

Comments Off on Don’t be so negative: Finding value in U.S. corporate bonds

The potential benefits of Emerging Market debt


July 17, 2019
Subject | Active management

Emerging market debt has evolved over the past few decades from a source of political and economic vulnerability to a potential positive driver of portfolio returns. The addition of new sovereign issuers (denominated in U.S. dollar and euro) has broadened the opportunity set for global investors, and corporate issuance has meaningfully contributed to its growth.

Continued

Comments Off on The potential benefits of Emerging Market debt

Invesco Global Bond Fund: The first three years


July 9, 2019
Subject | Active management | Invesco

Invesco Global Bond Fund crossed its three-anniversary with strong returns, finishing in the top quartile of its peer group.1 The management team navigated choppy waters with a changing mix of assets to capture upside in good times while providing protection in more challenging periods. The use of corporate credit, mortgage back securities and emerging markets helped to generate returns in calm markets, while a significant allocation to global government bonds helped to provide ballast during times of volatility.

Continued

Comments Off on Invesco Global Bond Fund: The first three years

ECB worries have receded, but Fed policy doubts have some pundits on the defensive


July 8, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

I spent the past week in Knoxville, Tennessee, watching my daughter’s basketball team play in a national tournament. I am the unofficial scorekeeper of the team, which makes the experience even more interesting, as I track the games on a variety of metrics. What I found is that the risks to my daughter’s team were different in each game, depending on the abilities of the opposing team. It reminded me that various market environments present different risks and, just as quickly as one game ends and a new game against a different team begins, so too can environments change.

Continued

Comments Off on ECB worries have receded, but Fed policy doubts have some pundits on the defensive

Navigating the low interest rate environment


July 3, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The most recent monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) laid the ground work for a new round of interest rate cuts and potential quantitative easing (QE) in Europe. This comes as global central banks are trying to get in front of softening economic data and disappointing inflation measures.

Continued

Comments Off on Navigating the low interest rate environment
Algorithm Wars

The U.S. cycle breaks a record. So now what?


July 2, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Kristina: As of July 1, the U.S. business cycle has set a new record for longevity. It’s a significant milestone, to be sure, but what does it really mean for investors? The answer might not be what you think. To help put this cycle into context, I’m turning over this edition of Weekly Market Compass to my colleague Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist for North America.

Continued

Comments Off on The U.S. cycle breaks a record. So now what?

The superiority of Canadian Corporate Credit


June 27, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Canadian companies continue to benefit from a strong earnings growth backdrop, especially in domestic facing sectors of the economy. Demand for new bond issuance remains exceptionally strong, highlighted by the recent all-time record number of buyers1 for a 10-year bond issued by Telus Corporation. In a world of a growing stock of negative-yielding debt, demand for high-quality, I believe positive-yielding bonds should continue to be well supported.

Continued

Comments Off on The superiority of Canadian Corporate Credit

Could central banks boost stocks in the second half?


June 24, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The Federal Reserve (Fed) met last week and clearly telegraphed that it will no longer be “patient” and that it is leaning toward loosening monetary policy. Why? Fed Chair Jay Powell said trade developments and global growth concerns are on the mind of the central bank. As I look into the second half of the year, those two items are key to my outlook as well – and I believe the willingness of central banks to become more accommodative could be a positive development for stocks.

Continued

Comments Off on Could central banks boost stocks in the second half?

Will the Fed lose its patience this week?


June 17, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

All eyes will be on this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting — especially the statement (whether the central bank will retain its “patient” stance) and the “dot plot” (which charts the outlook for interest rates). The June 18-19 Fed meeting is very important because market expectations have gotten so dovish recently. And with risks rising, many investors recognize that once again the Fed stands between them and a more challenging stock market environment.

Continued

Comments Off on Will the Fed lose its patience this week?

Central banks provide a silver lining to the escalating trade war


June 10, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

A collective sigh of relief was expelled on Friday evening as U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would indefinitely suspend the planned imposition of tariffs on Mexico – which was set to go into effect on June 10. Markets have entered “risk on” mode, given that the crisis was averted. However, we need to recognize that the announcement that the U.S. would apply a tariff on Mexican goods as a way to address immigration was a “game changer.” I believe strongly that just the threat of using tariffs to achieve non-trade policy objectives is very concerning and will likely contribute to a significant escalation in economic policy uncertainty – even though the current situation has been resolved.

Continued

Comments Off on Central banks provide a silver lining to the escalating trade war

What does the fragmented parliamentary election mean for Europe?


May 30, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

All eyes were on Europe this past week. First, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation. Then the European parliamentary elections took place. Here are the key takeaways from a momentous week for the European continent.

Continued

Comments Off on What does the fragmented parliamentary election mean for Europe?

Canadian yield curve points to slow growth, not recession


May 29, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The economic implications from an inverted yield curve may be overstated, in our view. Historically, when short-term interest rates, anchored by central bank policies, yield more than longer duration maturities the bond market is signaling that monetary policy has become restrictive. Taking on more interest rate risk in your portfolio for less yield to maturity is an unattractive option for investors.

Continued

Comments Off on Canadian yield curve points to slow growth, not recession

What’s your risk outlook?

I have the good fortune of meeting with advisors across Canada and hearing directly about the issues that are top of mind for their clients and their businesses. Usually there’s a certain amount of consistency to what they tell me in terms of sentiment in the market. The big picture view of asset class trends also tends to provide a consensus on where advisors are actively making allocations and how they are positioning investor portfolios.

Continued

Comments Off on What’s your risk outlook?

Three key takeaways from four days in Europe


April 9, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week I had the pleasure of traveling in Europe, meeting with colleagues and clients in several different countries. It was a whirlwind tour, but it was well worth the jet lag to get an in-person account of the various issues facing Europe today. Below, I share three key takeaways from my trip.

Continued

Comments Off on Three key takeaways from four days in Europe

The Fed delivers on the dovish side


March 22, 2019
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the target range for the U.S. federal funds at 2.25%-2.50% at its meeting on Wednesday. This outcome was in line with market expectations. In addition, the Fed indicated they do not expect to hike rates again in 2019 and only expect one hike in 2020.

Continued

Comments Off on The Fed delivers on the dovish side

Brexit uncertainty could last for another 21 months


March 20, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

The latest installment of the Brexit drama offers good and bad news for investors in U.K. assets and beyond: The good news is the risk of a “no deal” Brexit has receded, but the bad news is it’s still a possibility and the timeline toward resolution is now more extended. This means that persistent uncertainty is likely to continue to weigh on the U.K. and wider European economies, and may elevate the volatility of U.K. asset markets, particularly the currency.

Continued

Comments Off on Brexit uncertainty could last for another 21 months

Change is in the air as the Fed, BOC and ECB pivot on policy


March 14, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

There is an old Chinese proverb that states, “When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills.” In other words, some people embrace change while others fear it. I’ve come to the conclusion that the speed of the change has much to do with how a change is received. Just look at the past week, when we saw abrupt changes in the direction of the wind for central banks, followed by largely negative reactions.

Continued

Comments Off on Change is in the air as the Fed, BOC and ECB pivot on policy