Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Five issues for investors to watch


November 13, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week, the U.S. experienced a deepening split in political leadership, which dominated headlines. And yet, that was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of events that are impacting global markets. Below, I recap five key events from last week and highlight five issues to watch moving forward, including whether there are grounds for new alliances among U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democratic House.

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The U.S. midterm results are in, but what do they mean for markets?


November 7, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Going into yesterday’s U.S. midterm elections, our base case scenario was that Democrats would take the House while Republicans would retain the Senate. That has come to fruition, and has had an initially supportive effect on markets, with U.S. stocks and bonds supported and the dollar weaker. This U.S. market response has in effect eased global financial conditions, supporting other currencies and financial markets in general, including emerging markets.

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Capital market assumptions: How we estimate asset-class returns

Our views of equities, fixed income and alternatives shape our multi-asset portfolios and inform our clients

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Currency outlook: Convergence of global economic forces may cause weakening of U.S. dollar


October 3, 2018
Subject | Macro views

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada were resolved on September 30. The resolution reduces a major headwind for the Canadian economy. Second quarter GDP growth showed a rebound from first quarter weakness, and the positive outcome on trade should increase future growth estimates at the margin.

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Fed continues gradual hikes

The U.S. Federal Open Market committee (Fed) hiked the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point at Wednesdays meeting. This is the third rate hike this year, putting the new target range at 2.00%-2.25%. The market had fully priced in today’s move well ahead of the meeting.

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Is it time to worry about a liquidity crisis?


July 31, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

One of the key risks to markets that I’ve been discussing for more than a year is balance sheet normalization. I have argued — and continue to argue — that quantitative easing was a big experiment, and so unwinding it is an experiment in and of itself. Now that balance sheet normalization has been in force for more than half a year, we are seeing its effects. And one key effect is on liquidity.

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Five risks that could affect fixed income markets


July 12, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy – we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long. Nevertheless, political uncertainty, trade tensions and a sell-off in emerging markets have challenged investors in recent months. We expect these factors to generate further volatility and believe caution is warranted. However, we believe greater volatility will generate new opportunities for fixed income investors against a backdrop of solid macro and credit fundamentals. Below are five risks we are monitoring.

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Six issues driving global markets


July 10, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco

As I write this, early on July 9, global stocks have hit a two-week high1 and the price of copper is rallying. Markets are clearly focusing on positive data at the moment, which is a welcome change. Below, I highlight six important things that happened last week – both positive and negative – and several upcoming issues to watch.

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Interest rate outlook: U.S. inflation should peak this summer


July 6, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

U.S. growth remains strong, accelerating in the second quarter versus the first quarter’s lackluster 2.2% performance.1 We expect 2018 growth of around 2.8%, with strong contributions from capital expenditures and consumption. Core inflation continues to be benign, and we see it peaking in the next two months at around 2.2%. After that, softer rental and service costs should drive it back below 2%. In our view, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike one more time this year before pausing in response to declining inflation. Strong growth and lower-than-expected inflation point to a 10-year Treasury yield of around 3%. However, supply dynamics will likely begin to shift in the third quarter as the Treasury begins to issue more long-term debt. This may pressure the Treasury yield curve steeper.

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Federal Reserve hikes with upbeat outlook

The U.S. Federal Open Market committee (Fed) continued their recent gradual hiking cycle by increasing the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points at today’s meeting. The target range after the hike is now 1.75%-2.00%. The financial markets had been fully expecting today’s move.

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Rates outlook: Falling U.S. inflation may become a Fed concern by late 2018


May 16, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Economic data have been mixed since the Bank of Canada increased the overnight rate 25 basis points in January.1 Employment growth remains positive and consumer price inflation has been firm.

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Is the ‘synchronized’ global expansion really in sync?


May 8, 2018
Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

“Getting long in the tooth” is an interesting way to describe something that is getting old and presumably nearing its end – it refers to the long-time practice of estimating a horse’s age by looking at its mouth. I’ve found myself using this expression a lot these days, as the U.S. experiences its second-longest economic expansion in the last 100 years. But investors should remember that – even as market-watchers talk about “synchronized global growth” – other economies are in much earlier stages of expansion.

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Yield signs: Deconstructing a key market indicator


April 24, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The biggest news of last week was not a tweet, but a Treasury yield – specifically the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which rose significantly last week, to 2.95%.1 As of this writing on Monday, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.98%, very close to the key 3% level it has not seen in more than four years.1 But what is this key market indicator telling us? And why do people care?

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BoC remains data dependent


April 18, 2018
Subject

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced it would keep the overnight interest rate at 1.25% at today’s meeting. The outcome was not surprising as North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations remain unresolved and economic growth in the first quarter showed signs of slowing down.

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As U.S.-China trade drama continues, is a risk-off stance warranted?


April 10, 2018
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week saw an acceleration of the protectionist rhetoric between the U.S. and China. The week ended on a down note, with U.S. President Donald Trump tweeting a proposal for another $100 billion in tariffs, swiftly followed by China, despite its important holiday, promising to match the most recent round of tariffs and fight the U.S. “at any cost.” Following China’s threat, Trump admitted that the U.S. may feel some “pain,” while U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin conceded that, though unlikely, “there is the potential of a trade war.”

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