Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Avi Hooper | August 20, 2020

Global central banks – The permanent actor

The global financial crisis of 2008 has become a blueprint for how policymakers are acting today to smooth the negative growth and inflation shock from the ongoing health pandemic. Many global central banks have been forcefully pushing liquidity into markets to foster economic stability. Collapsing domestic demand and falling inflation has enabled an environment of co-operation between central banks and governments to ensure liquidity remains abundant and activity levels can be sustained without interruption.

We are in a global balance sheet recession.1 When the private sector, both companies and households, are unwilling or unable to borrow money for consumption and investment, the public sector (i.e., governments) must carry the mantle of primary borrower and intermediary of credit throughout the overall economy. This environment of government dependence and large central bank balance sheets is expected to remain for a multi-year time period. Keeping the cost of capital low for global borrowers will likely remain a key feature of global fixed income markets.

Growth and inflation are the ultimate objectives of today’s policies. The global economy will take some time to recover its previous size. Unemployment rates are expected to remain elevated as companies reduce their costs from labour to maximize profits from slowing revenues. Beyond the temporary effects from government wage subsidies, the trajectory for wage growth is downwards. Deflation2 risks are high and all efforts must be made to ensure some price inflation remains.

The bond market is priced for an extended period of low interest rate policies globally, leading to a continued steepness in yield curves.3 While inflation expectations are rising, actual inflation4 is lagging. Supply-related inflation, for example from food prices, have risen, but are likely temporary as food production comes back online. Structural forces from automation and other productivity-enhancing technologies continue to suppress inflation.

Bond issuer selection has never been more important as some sectors of the economy are likely to perform better than others as we come out of the prevailing recession. Companies have been able to build sizeable liquidity cushions to absorb any further economic shocks from the virus. Our focus continues to be on adding value through issuer selection across global investment grade credit. Specific opportunities in high yield and across emerging markets are increasingly evident as investors seek return and government policies keep interest rates low for an extended period ahead.

 

Explore Invesco Global Bond Fund –  global multi-sector credit solution that invests in investment grade credit.

 

 

 

Subscribe to the blog

Subscribe to receive notifications for: *


Do you want to subscribe in French?

Subscribe to receive e-mails from Invesco Canada Ltd. about this blog. To unsubscribe, please e-mail blog@invesco.ca or contact us.

1 A balance sheet recession is a type of economic recession that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline.

2 Deflation is defined as a fall in the general price level.

3 A yield curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity.

4 Actual inflation (a general increase in prices) is the rate of inflation measured by the consumer price index.

The opinions referenced above are those of the Avi Hooper as of Aug. 20, 2020. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.
† Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) is a unit comprising Invesco Senior Secured Management, Inc. of New York, U.S.; Invesco Advisers, Inc. of Atlanta, U.S.; Invesco Asset Management Ltd. of London, U.K.; and Invesco Canada Ltd. of Toronto, Canada

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performances may not be repeated.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss.