Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

The U.S.-China trade deal presents a paradox for markets


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
January 21, 2020

Subject | Macro views

Last week, the U.S. and China signed their Phase 1 trade agreement. This trade deal is a paradox – in my view, it is both inconsequential and yet extremely important.
 
It is inconsequential for two reasons: Tariffs will remain in place on a large amount of goods traded between the U.S. and China, and the deal doesn’t tackle many of the most important trade issues between the two countries. However, it is extremely important because of what it symbolizes: This trade deal suggests that friction between the two countries has peaked and is moving lower. The psychological effect is very significant, as it means that economic policy uncertainty has fallen. And, when companies believe economic policy is more certain, they typically spend more, especially on capex.

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The power of portfolio flexibility


January 15, 2020

Subject | Active management

Many investment managers apply strict portfolio constraints under the guise of risk management best practices. These often include limits in sector over-/under-weightings, geographic concentrations, minimum levels of portfolio holdings and/or market capitalization requirements. The challenge around these types of curbs is that while they are designed to reduce potential return variance, typically in relation to a particular benchmark, they also can considerably constrain excess return potential.
 
Overly restricting a potential investment universe can work against active managers’ ability to fully exploit research and market mispricing opportunities. To help illustrate this, think of constraints from the perspective of retail consumers.
 
A consumer who is free to purchase from any retailer without restriction can make more informed choices –and likely better purchases in terms of price, quality and overall value –than consumers who must spread purchases across at least fifty different retailers, restrict purchases from retailers headquartered in certain countries and/or only make purchases from retailers with a minimum of $1billion in annual sales. Applying the same logic to investment management suggests that greater selection choice combined with effective security research can offer a more favorable position to generate excess returns.

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What could the U.S.-Iran conflict mean for investors?


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
January 14, 2020

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

After the U.S. killing of Qassim Suleimani on Jan. 3 and Iran’s retaliatory, non-lethal missile strike against two U.S. military facilities in Iraq on Jan. 7, the situation appears to have de-escalated. However, investors continue to worry about the potential for this conflict between the U.S. and Iran to worsen. We do not believe that a war is likely at this juncture, but it is important to understand the potential effects that such a worst-case scenario could have on the markets.

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Five issues for investors to watch in January


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
January 7, 2020

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

2019 was a great year for markets, and equities delivered strong returns for the year. U.S. stocks led the way at 29.07%, Chinese stocks returned 20.94%, European stocks returned 20.03%, and emerging markets delivered 15.42%.1 But the ride wasn’t always smooth, with ongoing geopolitical sagas (like Brexit) and short-term market events (like the inverted yield curve) rattling markets – and investors’ resolve – along the way.

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What does Qassim Suleimani’s death mean for the market?


Global Market Strategist, North America
January 7, 2020

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

On Thursday evening, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, General Qassim Suleimani, was killed in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. The strike, which was authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, represents a potentially dangerous escalation in the growing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran.

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A holiday gift for markets: Increased economic policy certainty


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
December 17, 2019

Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Two developments last week suggest that we have entered a period of improved economic policy certainty. Both the UK election and the US-China Phase 1 trade deal promise to bring far more clarity for businesses as they plan for 2020 and beyond. If so, this could be a welcome gift for the economy and the stock market as we enter the holiday season.

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