Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Global equities: A decade after the global financial crisis, a mixed bag of growth


Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Perpetual
December 14, 2018

Subject | 2019 Investment Outlook Series | Industry views | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

Key takeaways

  • The overvaluation of structural growth stocks, such as technology stocks, is unsustainable, in our view.
  • For markets used to easy money, the transition to a more ‘normal’ period for central banks is likely to pose a challenge.
  • The European market looks a lot more attractively valued than the US, especially those stocks more sensitive to the direction of the economy, such as banks.

The outlook for global growth has become more mixed. While the synchronised economic expansion that I discussed in this piece last year is less widespread today, it should still be sufficient for corporate earnings to grow. Amid continued regime change – quantitative easing has given way to quantitative tightening, and interest rates are rising – the US continues to press ahead, while there is less momentum elsewhere.

Continued

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European Central Bank

Putting the sell-off in perspective


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
December 11, 2018

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

Last week saw major swoons in the stock market and U.S. Treasuries. As of this writing, the sell-off has been continuing. However, I still hold out hope that we could see stocks finish higher than where they are now by year-end. Yes, Virginia, there still is the possibility of a “Santa Pause.”

Continued

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Stock losses snowball across the globe in a December sell-off


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
December 6, 2018

Subject | Institutional | Invesco | Macro views

U.S. stocks began a dramatic sell-off on Tuesday that has continued and spread to other parts of the world, creating intense headlines across the globe on Thursday. There has been a flight to the perceived safety of sovereign debt. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell dramatically, from more than 3% at the start of the week to 2.83% as of this writing1 – and other major sovereign debt yields also followed suit. Some areas of the yield curve inverted, and the 2-year/10-year yield curve is in danger of inverting.

Continued

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Bank of Canada walks back from impending rate hike


Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of North American Rates Portfolio Management, Invesco Fixed Income
December 5, 2018

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% at its December 5 meeting. The tone around the message softened dramatically from the previous meeting in October.

Continued

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‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling


Vice President, ETF Sales and Strategy
December 5, 2018

Subject | ETFs | Invesco | Tax & Estate

As the year-end approaches, many investors with taxable accounts may be seeking to dispose of securities that have lost money. The strategy of tax-loss selling allows the investor to claim a capital loss, which offsets capital gains for the current year. Any unused net capital losses can then be applied against taxable capital gains in any of the three preceding years, or carried forward indefinitely to future years. To realize capital gains and losses in 2018, trades must be executed by Thursday, December 27 to ensure settlement by Monday, December 31, the last business day of 2018.

Continued

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Could December be the start of a “Santa Pause” rally for stocks?


Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.
December 4, 2018

Subject | Invesco | Macro views

When I was in high school, I worked as a lifeguard. I loved the job, but I was always aware of the enormous responsibility that came with it. I found the key to success was to anticipate trouble before it happened – to watch swimmers for any early signs of distress before they ever came close to drowning. Today, I see similarities between lifeguards and policy-makers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which must try to anticipate economic downturns before they start. For the past several weeks, I have written in my blog that signs of a global slowdown are starting to appear. The good news is that policy-makers appear to be reacting to those early signs – which I believe could help spur a “Santa Pause” rally for markets.

Continued

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