Subject | Coronavirus impact | Macro views
It wasn’t long ago that the ink was drying on our 2020 outlook. In it, we touted the conclusion of the third major policy-driven growth scare (along with 2012’s European debt crisis and 2015’s Federal Reserve [Fed] rate hike) of the elongated business and credit cycle. Stable growth and supportive policy were to be the theme of 2020. The Fed had already overturned the 2018 rate hikes and had successfully eased financial conditions, while the Trump administration had inked a Phase 1 trade deal with China. China, for its part, was working to stimulate its economy. The January reading of the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, as good of a leading indicator of economic activity as any other, would have traditionally been viewed by us as a resounding affirmation that the growth scare had passed. “Risk on!” we would have rejoiced.Comments Off on Coronavirus knocked our 2020 outlook off track. But maybe not for long.