Following several positive trading sessions, investors may be asking whether the markets need to retest their prior lows.
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One month ago in this blog, I noted that April would be a critical month to gauge the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the board, it was a massive response, including significant monetary and fiscal stimulus from a variety of economies and widespread lockdowns designed to slow the rate of infection. But as we enter May, we are seeing differences in approach come to the fore – between countries, between localities, and between political parties.
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In March, we saw fixed income ETFs trading at a significant discount at its net asset value.
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While the economy remains stalled under COVID-19 restrictions, some of the consequences may provide interesting opportunities. One is that the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of several innovations.
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To retest or not to retest – that is the question. Indeed, if Hamlet were around today he may be wondering whether the broad U.S. equity market, after posting the second best 25-day rally on record (trailing only 2009’s), will retest the initial market low hit on March 23 of this year.1 To many investment professionals, a retest of the market bottom is a foregone conclusion. In fact, a poll of financial advisors conducted in early April revealed that 81% expected the U.S. equity market to retest the March 23 low.2
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It’s hard to imagine the economic data getting worse, and yet the U.S. equity market has posted the second best 20-day rally on record.
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