Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

When valuing businesses, cash flows matter more than forward multiples


July 16, 2020
Subject | Active management

During a recent webinar, I was asked whether we have enough real data to see what forward P/E multiples look like, or whether the market is just ‘guessing.’ This is an interesting question that highlights a very important point when it comes to valuing businesses.  It highlights the danger of using forward multiples to evaluate long term intrinsic value1.  Significant business disruption, either as a result of the current pandemic or an abrupt downturn leading to a recession (think Global Financial Crisis) can significantly impact forward P/Es.  However, these events do not have the same impact on the intrinsic value of a high-quality business.  The key distinction is that forward P/Es rely on one year of earnings while a company’s intrinsic value is a function of all of its future cash flows.

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Tactical Asset Allocation – July 2020


July 14, 2020
Subject | Active management | Macro views

Our macro regime framework continues to indicate the global economy is likely moving into a recovery regime, confirming our expectation of an inflection in the business cycle. By and large, recent global economic data releases have shown signs of stabilization as most economies have begun the reopening process. Over the past two months, indicators from consumer confidence to retail sales, business surveys and industrial orders suggest modest improvements off the bottom readings registered in April when the most stringent lockdown measures were in effect. The improvement in economic data is most apparent in Asia, particularly in China, where evidence of an economic recovery is emerging across several parts of the economy, such as housing, industrial orders and production, money and credit growth. Emerging markets outside of Asia are still lagging, reflecting the most recent contagion waves in Latin America and Russia (Figure 1).

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Your International equity questions answered

I recently participated in a webinar, providing my views on the international equity space. As a member of the Invesco International and Global Growth team, I look at companies on an individual basis, focusing my analysis on their earnings, quality and valuation (EQV).

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Answering your questions on inflation, equity allocation and gold

I recently presented a webinar detailing the three scenarios that the Invesco Investment Solutions team believes could unfold over the coming 12 to 15 months. We created three brief videos that outline our Base, Bear and Bull case scenarios that I discussed. The webinar included a Q&A session, but we were not able to get to all of the questions within our allotted time. I would like to answer some of them here.

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Video: U-shaped recovery would be enough for bonds

The markets have been pretty vulnerable over the last few months, but they’ve started to settle down over the past month and a half. I believe a lot of the credit for this lies with incredible liquidity provided by central banks around the world.

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Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery

The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking for signs of economic life after the global financial crisis and searching for indications that the U.S. and other developed countries were rising out of the economic ashes like a phoenix. And now, 11 years later, I find myself again looking for – and finding – encouraging signs of recovery in the U.S. and other major developed countries. In this week’s blog, I focus on some of the green shoots that I’ve seen in the last several weeks.

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Portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario

In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action.

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Portfolio managers examine the impact of COVID-19

As the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, so do unemployment rates. And so the world continues to look for balance between implementing public health measures, offering fiscal and monetary stimulus, and opening up economies.

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Tactical Asset Allocation Views – May 2020

Our macro regime framework continues to signal that the global economy and all its major regions and countries are in a contraction regime. As widely expected, the economic data are beginning to reflect the disruption caused by quarantines and lockdowns, resulting in a significant deterioration in our leading economic indicators, which we expect to continue for some time. While global market sentiment has stabilized over the past month, it remains in a downward trend, suggesting markets are still expecting downward revisions to global growth expectations. As previously discussed, we believe this macro environment warrants a defensive portfolio posture. We have not made major changes to our asset allocation and continue to favour an overweight exposure in investment grade credit and defensive equity factors.

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Seeking value in emerging markets: China

Our team joined a webinar with over 800 participants, a significant turnout that was not unexpected given the current market environment.
 
As a follow-up to the call, we’ve received numerous questions from participants, with the vast majority pertaining to China. There was also some interest in India, Mexico and Brazil, which we will address in an upcoming blog post.
 
Growing investor interest in emerging markets has been driven by China successfully flattening the COVID-19 transmission curve and being one of the first countries to see signs of a recovery.
 
Conversely, many other countries are still struggling to control the virus, with their economies continuing to deteriorate. These developments make emerging markets potentially more intriguing to investors.

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Why there’s little point in asking whether the stock market will retest lows

To retest or not to retest – that is the question. Indeed, if Hamlet were around today he may be wondering whether the broad U.S. equity market, after posting the second best 25-day rally on record (trailing only 2009’s), will retest the initial market low hit on March 23 of this year.1 To many investment professionals, a retest of the market bottom is a foregone conclusion. In fact, a poll of financial advisors conducted in early April revealed that 81% expected the U.S. equity market to retest the March 23 low.2

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Video: Bank loans’ senior, secured status has helped during crisis

Investors who’ve been rattled by volatility in their fixed income portfolios may be seeking assurance about their underlying holdings.

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As the U.S. passes more stimulus, disagreements loom on what comes next

For months, I have talked about the importance of policy in combatting the COVID 19 crisis: health policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. All three prongs need to be adequate and effective in order for the US economy to recovery quickly. While the Federal Reserve has bent over backwards to provide accommodation to support the US economy and markets, fiscal stimulus is still a work in progress.
 
In this week’s commentary I talk with Andy Blocker, Invesco’s Head of US Government Affairs, who breaks down where we are today in terms of fiscal policy – and what to expect next.

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Long-term investors need to be realistic rather than overly optimistic

The recent market sell-off was most pronounced in lower quality, more economically sensitive areas of the market, such as energy, materials, financials, industrial manufacturing and travel related businesses (i.e., airlines, cruise operators, etc.), which are areas where we find an extremely limited number of investible businesses.

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Tracking China’s recovery and a dire U.S. earnings season

Last week was another momentous one for economies and markets, with particular attention being paid to the economic recovery in China, earnings season for U.S. stocks, and the Federal Reserve’s views on interest rates. Below, my colleagues from the Global Market Strategy Office and I answer some of the most pressing questions we have received from clients in recent days:

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