Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

The coronavirus impact on fixed income markets


March 16, 2020
Subject | Coronavirus impact | ETFs | Industry views

Macro impact
 
The spread of the coronavirus globally has continued unabated in recent weeks. The combination of “business as usual” in Europe and the U.S. and limited testing has exacerbated the issue and increased uncertainty regarding the extent of the outbreak and the ultimate path the outbreak will take. As policymakers take more aggressive measures to control the spread of the virus, we will likely see a large impact on global growth. As the extent of the outbreak has expanded, investors have had to price in a larger impact on growth over a longer period.
 
Invesco Fixed Income expects Q1 growth in the U.S. and Europe to be weaker than expected and Q2 growth to be significantly negative, as these economies are hit by fear and the impact of measures implemented to contain the virus. The path forward also remains very uncertain, which is a headwind for markets.
 
China provides a model for us to think about what lies ahead. China implemented strong measures to control the virus, which has hit the economy badly in Q1. China has now controlled the outbreak and is in the process of returning to work. Once the level of daily infection peaked, the process of returning to work started. Infections in the U.S. and Europe are still rising, and it is likely the epidemic will take a while to peak in these regions. It is the impact on growth and uncertainty around the virus propagation that is causing current market action.
 
It is very important to acknowledge that we believe this is a fundamentals-driven correction, which makes it very different than a financial crisis. The resolution of this situation will likely take time as we watch the epidemic play out in the U.S. and Europe. Financial conditions-driven crises, such as the one in Q4 2018 and the Global Financial Crisis can be resolved quickly by central banks. In the case of fundamentals-driven crises, central banks can only ameliorate, not solve, them. We expect this market to follow a U pattern rather than a V.
 
We expect risk assets to continue to be volatile, and markets will likely take a while to bottom. U.S. interest rates have been the shock absorber, but there is little room for bonds to rally further, in our view, as we do not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to embrace negative interest rates. The Fed will likely cut rates close to zero, but we expect the yield curve to remain positively sloped. Lower U.S. interest rates will likely erode the interest rate advantage of the dollar versus other developed market currencies, which will likely weigh on the dollar going forward versus other developed market currencies.

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What could short-term volatility mean for long-term investors?


March 14, 2020
Subject | ETFs | Macro views

Markets are continuing to be highly volatile – and the past two weeks have seen historic gains and losses. While I prefer to evaluate performance over longer periods, it’s understandable that investors are especially interested in the market’s daily fluctuations. Here’s what I’ll be watching in the coming week and months.

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Embarking on the ESG journey


March 9, 2020
Subject | ETFs | Industry views

Once considered a niche market within the investment universe, strategies that integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns into their investment process have hit the mainstream.
 
This has been driven by several social movements and the recognition that there is still a great deal of work to be done, particularly from a financial standpoint, to address issues ranging from climate change and gender equality to indigenous rights.
 
Investors who are just beginning to incorporate ESG elements in their portfolio may prefer a passive strategy for a few reasons.
 
First, a passive approach may offer exposure to a broad large cap segment in the market, which might make it suitable as a core portfolio holding.
 
Second, you get a level of transparency into which ESG elements are being incorporated alongside the other financial considerations for building the portfolio.
 
For an ETF, the rules are transparent and public, so the investor can evaluate the strategy before buying into it.

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The Evolution of ESG


February 27, 2020
Subject | ETFs | Industry views | Invesco

Responsible investing is becoming more mainstream as demand increases for strategies that incorporate ESG factors into their investment process. The drivers come from regulatory pressure, demographic shifts such as the growing influence of millennials, and the greater availability of corporate data on ESG issues. More generally, investors want their investments to align with their own values, especially if it offers the potential for better risk-adjusted performance.

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Challenges and opportunities within the ESG space


February 20, 2020
Subject | ETFs

As consumers, we’re more aware of the environmental and social impact of our consumption than ever before – and today, awareness has an impact on many people’s investment choices.
 
The growth and attention around ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investing within investment communities has progressed at a tremendous pace. In the U.S., ESG assets have grown 38% between 2016 and 2018,and 2019 appears to be no different. Yet as with many things that grow quickly, there can be growing pains, as well.
 
Today’s ESG investors face a few recurring challenges:

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Exchange-traded funds: Strategies for mitigating the new risks of the new year

Key Takeaways

  • We see new risks on the horizon for both equity and fixed income investors, but there are various exchange-traded fund strategies that we believe can help.
  • We expect that a loss of profit momentum in 2019 could lead to increased volatility and correlations, and we believe that the Low Volatility and Quality factors may perform relatively well in such an environment.
  • With the overall climate still tilting in the direction of higher rates in 2019, one way to potentially manage that risk is to build bond ladders using defined-maturity bond funds.

In the new year, we see new risks on the horizon for both equity and fixed income investors. Equity markets are anticipating a loss of momentum for corporate profit growth. And, for the first time in 12 years, fixed income investors are forced to wrestle with the challenge of navigating a multi-year upward trend in interest rates at both the short and long end of the bond universe. There are various exchange-traded fund strategies that we believe can help with both challenges.

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Solutions: Heading into an uncertain 2019, diversification must be top-of-mind

Key takeaways

  • The road ahead is expected to be challenging due to a variety of factors: rising global interest rates, increased volatility, diverging global monetary policies, and heightened geopolitical tensions around trade and tariffs.
  • Our forecasts for returns are tepid across the major asset classes.
  • There remain pockets of opportunities within asset classes.

Heading into 2019, the market’s resiliency is likely to be tested by evolving geopolitical tensions and questions regarding the ability of a late stage economy to grow. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as the markets seek additional support for increasing asset prices beyond continued earnings growth and the perceived positive impact of tax cuts. However, the road ahead will likely be more challenging to navigate. While the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, continues to expand, and US equities are experiencing their second largest expansion in recent history, there are numerous challenges for investors to navigate going forward, including:

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‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling


December 5, 2018
Subject | ETFs | Invesco | Tax & Estate

As the year-end approaches, many investors with taxable accounts may be seeking to dispose of securities that have lost money. The strategy of tax-loss selling allows the investor to claim a capital loss, which offsets capital gains for the current year. Any unused net capital losses can then be applied against taxable capital gains in any of the three preceding years, or carried forward indefinitely to future years. To realize capital gains and losses in 2018, trades must be executed by Thursday, December 27 to ensure settlement by Monday, December 31, the last business day of 2018.

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During market drops, the Low Volatility factor has outperformed


November 23, 2018
Subject | ETFs | Invesco

In 2017, the S&P 500 Index did not experience any corrections greater than 5%. So far in 2018, there have been three such market drops. So which year represents the more typical investor experience? History shows us that the relative calm of 2017 was an outlier, and that losses and volatility are recurring events that investors should be prepared for.

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ETF trading: Keep an eye on volatility


February 1, 2018
Subject | ETFs | Smart beta

Our goal on the PowerShares ETF Capital Markets trading desk is to help our clients experience smooth and efficient ETF trades. In this blog series, I’m highlighting some of the most common guidance we provide. Today, I’m going to look at volatility – how it can distort the bid-ask spread, what to look for and how to get help.

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ETF trading: Get the right price


January 8, 2018
Subject | ETFs | Smart beta

It’s often said that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “trade just like a stock”, but there are a few differences that can make buying and selling ETFs a little tricky, even for experienced investors. Here at Invesco, our PowerShares ETF Capital Markets help desk fields daily questions from advisors and institutional investors about how to trade ETFs more efficiently. I’ve compiled a few of the most common suggestions from those calls into a series of four blog posts.

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Supplementing bonds with quality dividends


November 24, 2017
Subject | ETFs

For income investors, the recent uptick in short-term interest rates served as a reminder that their bond portfolios remain vulnerable to risk. Rising interest rates tend to erode the value of a bond portfolio, leaving investors vulnerable to declines in portion of their portfolio which is supposed to be relatively safe.

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Volume does NOT equal liquidity. Here’s why


October 6, 2017
Subject | ETFs | Smart beta

Despite explosive growth in the use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the last decade, a few persistent myths about them remain. On our ETF capital markets desk, for example, we often hear from advisors with liquidity concerns. The idea that volume equals liquidity persists among many investors, and advisors get a lot of questions about this from their clients. Let’s dispel this myth by looking a little deeper at the role of the market maker in ETF trading.

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Are smart beta ETFs skewing stock valuations?


July 28, 2017
Subject | ETFs | Smart beta

Thanks in large part to the popularity of smart beta and factor-based strategies, adoption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has grown rapidly in recent years. Some have even speculated that the growth of ETFs is skewing the valuations of certain stocks. I do not believe that is the case. Below, I explain why.

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