Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

I’m not concerned about long-term inflation. Here’s why.


March 5, 2021
Subject | Industry views | Invesco | Macro views

Market drawdowns are never fun.  But for all the hand wringing over the current market downturn and the pain in the long-duration trade, let’s not forget that in many ways, this is playing out as we had hoped.  It was only one year ago when the first case of the SARS-CoV-2 appeared in my home state of New Jersey.  If you had told me then that 12 months later the U.S. economy would produce 379,000 jobs in the prior month,1 the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would be flirting with 1.60%,2 and the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven would be over 2.2%,3 then I would have slept much better that night. 

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Will higher bond yields kill the bull market in stocks?


March 2, 2021
Subject | Industry views | Invesco | Macro views

The answer to that question depends on the reason why interest rates are rising. If it’s because real economic growth is picking up, that should be good for stocks through the earnings channel. If it’s because inflation is getting out of control, that should be bad for stocks through the valuation channel.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve downplays inflation while GameStop captures the world’s attention


February 1, 2021
Subject | Industry views | Invesco | Macro views

Weekly Market Compass: Market speculation hit a new level this week with GameStop, and the U.S. Federal Reserve threw cold water on inflation concerns

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Looking for an edge in e-commerce


December 18, 2020
Subject | Industry views | Invesco

E-commerce has been like a massive wave that has washed over much of the traditional retail footprint in the U.S. and Europe. Globally, e-commerce retail sales are projected to hit $6.5 trillion USD in 2024, from $4.0 trillion USD in 2020.1 In the U.S., growth in e-commerce retail sales more than doubled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and is projected to grow at 12% annually over the coming years.1

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Smart cars are getting much smarter

Three years ago, we wrote about “your car in 5 years’ time,” but it is already time for an update. Voice commands have been fully integrated into new cars, and they’re capable of doing much more than the commercials demonstrating “Alexa, start my car” promised. Making phone calls hands-free in the car seems normal now, and so progress goes – the once fantastic and whimsical ideas becoming commonplace.
     

The auto companies are serious about innovation. Research and development (R&D) dollars spent in the auto industry were close to $130 billion USD in 2018, only trailing R&D dollars spent in the Healthcare and Information and Communications Technology sectors.2

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The coronavirus impact on fixed income markets


March 16, 2020
Subject | Coronavirus impact | ETFs | Industry views

Macro impact
 
The spread of the coronavirus globally has continued unabated in recent weeks. The combination of “business as usual” in Europe and the U.S. and limited testing has exacerbated the issue and increased uncertainty regarding the extent of the outbreak and the ultimate path the outbreak will take. As policymakers take more aggressive measures to control the spread of the virus, we will likely see a large impact on global growth. As the extent of the outbreak has expanded, investors have had to price in a larger impact on growth over a longer period.
 
Invesco Fixed Income expects Q1 growth in the U.S. and Europe to be weaker than expected and Q2 growth to be significantly negative, as these economies are hit by fear and the impact of measures implemented to contain the virus. The path forward also remains very uncertain, which is a headwind for markets.
 
China provides a model for us to think about what lies ahead. China implemented strong measures to control the virus, which has hit the economy badly in Q1. China has now controlled the outbreak and is in the process of returning to work. Once the level of daily infection peaked, the process of returning to work started. Infections in the U.S. and Europe are still rising, and it is likely the epidemic will take a while to peak in these regions. It is the impact on growth and uncertainty around the virus propagation that is causing current market action.
 
It is very important to acknowledge that we believe this is a fundamentals-driven correction, which makes it very different than a financial crisis. The resolution of this situation will likely take time as we watch the epidemic play out in the U.S. and Europe. Financial conditions-driven crises, such as the one in Q4 2018 and the Global Financial Crisis can be resolved quickly by central banks. In the case of fundamentals-driven crises, central banks can only ameliorate, not solve, them. We expect this market to follow a U pattern rather than a V.
 
We expect risk assets to continue to be volatile, and markets will likely take a while to bottom. U.S. interest rates have been the shock absorber, but there is little room for bonds to rally further, in our view, as we do not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to embrace negative interest rates. The Fed will likely cut rates close to zero, but we expect the yield curve to remain positively sloped. Lower U.S. interest rates will likely erode the interest rate advantage of the dollar versus other developed market currencies, which will likely weigh on the dollar going forward versus other developed market currencies.

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Embarking on the ESG journey


March 9, 2020
Subject | ETFs | Industry views

Once considered a niche market within the investment universe, strategies that integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns into their investment process have hit the mainstream.
 
This has been driven by several social movements and the recognition that there is still a great deal of work to be done, particularly from a financial standpoint, to address issues ranging from climate change and gender equality to indigenous rights.
 
Investors who are just beginning to incorporate ESG elements in their portfolio may prefer a passive strategy for a few reasons.
 
First, a passive approach may offer exposure to a broad large cap segment in the market, which might make it suitable as a core portfolio holding.
 
Second, you get a level of transparency into which ESG elements are being incorporated alongside the other financial considerations for building the portfolio.
 
For an ETF, the rules are transparent and public, so the investor can evaluate the strategy before buying into it.

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The Evolution of ESG


February 27, 2020
Subject | ETFs | Industry views | Invesco

Responsible investing is becoming more mainstream as demand increases for strategies that incorporate ESG factors into their investment process. The drivers come from regulatory pressure, demographic shifts such as the growing influence of millennials, and the greater availability of corporate data on ESG issues. More generally, investors want their investments to align with their own values, especially if it offers the potential for better risk-adjusted performance.

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Brexit: The consequences of economic policy uncertainty

Economic policy uncertainty has for decades been recognized by economists as having the potential to negatively impact economic growth. In 2015, economists Huseyin Gulen and Mihai Ion found that economic policy uncertainty has a strong negative correlation to business investment.1 This built on previous research from the 1980s that showed that high uncertainty gives firms an incentive to delay investment decisions, especially in situations where reversing an investment decision can be costly.2

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