Weekly Market Compass: A few historical crashes have made many investors wary about the month of October. But Kristina Hooper sees several reasons for optimism ahead.
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As the U.S. Congress moves to enact President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda via the budget reconciliation process, it is grappling with several big issues, the biggest of which is how to pay for it. We discuss the key tax proposals.
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Could the stars align for a ‘Goldilocks’ economy?
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As we wait for the votes to be counted, and perhaps recounted, in some key states, we’ve gotten some questions about the potential for a divided government and what it could mean for markets if the White House and Congress are split between parties.
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With ballots still being counted, the U.S. presidential election remains undecided. Our experts discuss the next steps in the process and the potential market and economic implications.
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As of midnight EST, the 2020 presidential election remains up in the air. With ballots remaining to be counted in several states, an official result may not be known for some time. Below, our experts discuss the next steps in the political process, the policy issues that the markets will be watching, and two critical questions for investors to ask themselves right now.
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As coronavirus cases grow in the U.S., more fiscal stimulus appears to be on the way, which I believe is movement in the right direction. Ultimately, I expect the U.S. to fall into a pattern where, every month or two, Congress must pass a new stimulus package to keep the economy going, especially if the curve is not successfully bent.
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Last week, we saw increases in both the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. But that’s where the similarities end — there is currently a meaningful difference in market confidence for the prospects for longer-term economic recovery.
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Invesco’s investment experts discuss the pandemic’s ripple effects in these markets
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The U.S. jobs report and Purchasing Managers’ Index data both improved in June, but rising infections remain a critical concern. I would not be surprised to see those numbers slip back in the coming months if policymakers become complacent. In my view, more fiscal stimulus is clearly needed as some companies continue to announce layoffs and file for bankruptcies while others are voluntarily re-closing stores.
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The first half of 2020 has been unexpected, to say the very least. Our outlook for the year quickly became obsolete with the rapid spread of COVID-19 and accompanying lockdowns across the globe, which have stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand.
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Two weeks ago, I wrote about some burgeoning “green shoots” that offered early, encouraging signs of economic recovery around the world. I’m pleased to see that more green shoots are sprouting – we continue to receive positive economic news as developed world economies progress in their re-openings. However, I’m also keeping an eye on some negative signs that could cause disruption.
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On March 13, 2020, we began talking1 and writing2 about a series of tactical market bottom indicators3 that showed signs of extreme risk-off positioning, which were positive from a contrarian perspective. One of those indicators was the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) equity put/call ratio. Little did we know it at the time, but ten days later, the S&P 500 Index would put in what now appears to be a major low for the cycle.
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I recently presented a webinar detailing the three scenarios that the Invesco Investment Solutions team believes could unfold over the coming 12 to 15 months. We created three brief videos that outline our Base, Bear and Bull case scenarios that I discussed. The webinar included a Q&A session, but we were not able to get to all of the questions within our allotted time. I would like to answer some of them here.
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Last week saw a massive sell-off for stocks globally. The initial trigger seems to have come from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Below, I summarize five key points from that press conference and the key takeaways I heard while “reading between the lines.”
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The markets have been pretty vulnerable over the last few months, but they’ve started to settle down over the past month and a half. I believe a lot of the credit for this lies with incredible liquidity provided by central banks around the world.
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The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking for signs of economic life after the global financial crisis and searching for indications that the U.S. and other developed countries were rising out of the economic ashes like a phoenix. And now, 11 years later, I find myself again looking for – and finding – encouraging signs of recovery in the U.S. and other major developed countries. In this week’s blog, I focus on some of the green shoots that I’ve seen in the last several weeks.
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I recently participated in a webinar for advisors and investors, Financial markets: Historical perspective and roadmap to recovery, followed by a brief Q&A session (you can watch a replay here). I’d like to take this opportunity to answer some of the questions we received but didn’t have time to address.
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In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action.
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Last week I wrote about the need for more fiscal stimulus in order to counteract the negative economic impact of the pandemic. Since the start of this crisis, I have worried that countries would follow the same playbook that was used in the face of the Global Financial Crisis – in general, a large level of monetary stimulus with a far smaller level of fiscal stimulus. I’m happy to report that the European Union (EU), Japan, and China all announced more fiscal stimulus in the past several weeks.
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