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Invesco Canada blog

Insights, commentary and investing expertise

Macro views

What could the U.S.-Iran conflict mean for investors?


January 14, 2020
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

After the U.S. killing of Qassim Suleimani on Jan. 3 and Iran’s retaliatory, non-lethal missile strike against two U.S. military facilities in Iraq on Jan. 7, the situation appears to have de-escalated. However, investors continue to worry about the potential for this conflict between the U.S. and Iran to worsen. We do not believe that a war is likely at this juncture, but it is important to understand the potential effects that such a worst-case scenario could have on the markets.

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Five issues for investors to watch in January


January 7, 2020
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

2019 was a great year for markets, and equities delivered strong returns for the year. U.S. stocks led the way at 29.07%, Chinese stocks returned 20.94%, European stocks returned 20.03%, and emerging markets delivered 15.42%.1 But the ride wasn’t always smooth, with ongoing geopolitical sagas (like Brexit) and short-term market events (like the inverted yield curve) rattling markets – and investors’ resolve – along the way.

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What does Qassim Suleimani’s death mean for the market?


January 7, 2020
Subject | Invesco | Macro views

On Thursday evening, Iran’s top security and intelligence commander, General Qassim Suleimani, was killed in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. The strike, which was authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, represents a potentially dangerous escalation in the growing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran.

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A holiday gift for markets: Increased economic policy certainty


December 17, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Two developments last week suggest that we have entered a period of improved economic policy certainty. Both the UK election and the US-China Phase 1 trade deal promise to bring far more clarity for businesses as they plan for 2020 and beyond. If so, this could be a welcome gift for the economy and the stock market as we enter the holiday season.

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A Conservative landslide paves the way for a Jan. 31 Brexit


December 13, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

How much of a surprise was Thursday’s UK election outcome? Actually, it was very similar to the seat-by-seat projections we published a month ago, which forecast a clear Conservative majority in Parliament. The difference is that the Conservative Party won a few more seats than we expected (365), as did Labour (203), and the Liberal Democrats did much worse than we anticipated, taking 11 seats.

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Is global trade entering an era of ‘vigilante protectionism’?


December 11, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

I grew up in the New York City area in the 1980s. My dad always read the tabloids, and so I started to do so as well. That’s where I first learned about a fascinating phenomenon – the Guardian Angels. This was a large group of concerned citizens who wore distinctive uniforms, most notably red berets, and patrolled subways and other public areas in an attempt to prevent crimes from occurring during what was perceived to be a lawless time for New York City. In the beginning, the Guardian Angels were labeled by the tabloids as “vigilantes” who were “taking the law into their own hands.” Today, they are a reminder of how chaotic New York City was at that time.

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2020 Global Outlook: The late cycle expansion continues


December 5, 2019
Subject | Macro views

As we approach the longest historical economic expansion in North America, we see the cycle continuing with no recession on the horizon. Twenty different global central banks eased monetary policy in 2019 providing fuel for global growth to continue. As U.S.-China trade tensions calm and a resolution to a three-year Brexit standoff is in sight, we believe business sentiment should improve and abundant central bank liquidity can help provide positive yet uneven global growth.

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2020 outlook: An optimistic view of capital markets


December 3, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Welcome to December – just one more month until a new year begins (and, depending on how you do the math, a new decade as well). Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020. Below, I highlight some of the reasons why. An in-depth analysis is available here.

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Amid a host of central bank developments, one constant remains: global market pressure


November 26, 2019
Subject | Institutional | Macro views

Last week brought a number of key developments from central banks around the world, from the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest meeting minutes, to a reaffirmation of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy, to the first speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. These underscored the key differences between each central bank, but I see one constant: the continued pressure imposed by trade war tensions and a slowing global growth outlook.

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Our new study shows factor investing adoption continues to increase globally


November 25, 2019
Subject | 2020 Investment Outlook Series | Active management | Macro views

Invesco’s Office of Global Factor Investing believes that systematic, evidence-based application of investment factors is part of a permanent trend as these strategies can complement other approaches in achieving client objectives. The most common client journey starts with factor investing in equities before moving into other asset classes; however, adoption is often client-specific.

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Global real estate: A generally positive outlook, but balancing growth opportunities with risk mitigation is key


November 25, 2019
Subject | 2020 Investment Outlook Series | Macro views

Economic growth has begun to moderate worldwide, as expected, but remains adequate to support real estate demand. Heading into 2020, real estate appears more attractively priced relative to other asset classes than it did in early 2019 amidst even lower long-term government bond rates, which in turn may drive additional capital into the sector as investors widen their search for yield-bearing assets. While some risks have begun to recede (namely, upward pressures on inflation and interest rates), other geopolitical risks have crystalized to such a degree that our execution strategies have evolved to mitigate against them.

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International equities: Subdued expectations may lead to positive surprises


November 25, 2019
Subject | 2020 Investment Outlook Series | Macro views

As 2019 draws to a close, the year has seen a welcome rebound for global equities after the sharp sell-off seen in late 2018. This rally has occurred despite weakening indicators so a key question facing investors is whether stabilization in growth/activity is now close at hand.

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emerging markets, economy

What could the upcoming U.K. election mean for Brexit?


November 19, 2019
Subject | Macro views

On Dec. 12, the U.K. is holding a general election, and the outcome is difficult to gauge. While the Conservative and Labour parties try to broaden the debate, the dominant theme remains Brexit. To give us a preview of this important election, I’m turning over today’s Weekly Market Compass blog to my colleague Paul Jackson. Paul is based in our London office and has been tracking the election news and polls closely.

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Bank of Canada downgrades economic outlook


October 30, 2019
Subject | Macro views

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 1.75% at today’s meeting. While the result was widely expected, the tone of the statement, as well as the press conference, were more downbeat than anticipated.

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Will this week’s data confirm last week’s optimism for stocks?


October 29, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Last week was a “risk on” week for the markets, with stocks rising. The MSCI All Country World Index rose during the course of the week, the S&P 500 Index came close to its all-time high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index surged a robust 1.9%.1 U.S. Treasury yields also rose as fear dissipated – the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.8% and the 30-year finished at 2.29%.1 By the end of last week, there was a relatively comfortable 18-point spread between the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yield.1

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Should investors be scared of a Halloween sell-off?


October 22, 2019
Subject | Macro views

Many people around the world observe Halloween in the month of October, celebrating all that is spooky and macabre. My kids have all been enthralled with Halloween, choosing their costumes several months in advance (one year, my older son insisted on wearing his costume every single day of the month of October). And plenty of adults who have outgrown trick-or-treat still believe that October would not be complete without horror movies running non-stop throughout the month. But no matter if you celebrate with cute kids’ costumes or elaborate haunted houses – what makes Halloween fun is the knowledge that the scares aren’t real.

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Is long-term Canadian equity underperformance coming to an end?


October 10, 2019
Subject | Macro views

The investing world is understandably focused on the U.S. After all, it’s the biggest economy, has the largest stock market, is home to the some of the best-known companies and, admittedly, the political spectacle in Washington can be entertaining at times. As a result, the U.S. frequently steals the limelight from its neighbor to the north.

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European Central Bank