Macro views

How long can economic data improve while infections continue to spread?

The U.S. jobs report and Purchasing Managers’ Index data both improved in June, but rising infections remain a critical concern. I would not be surprised to see those numbers slip back in the coming months if policymakers become complacent. In my view, more fiscal stimulus is clearly needed as some companies continue to announce layoffs and file for bankruptcies while others are voluntarily re-closing stores.

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Mid-year outlook: A slow, uneven economic recovery in the second half

The first half of 2020 has been unexpected, to say the very least. Our outlook for the year quickly became obsolete with the rapid spread of COVID-19 and accompanying lockdowns across the globe, which have stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand.

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Economic data shows improvement, but infection rates prove difficult to control

Two weeks ago, I wrote about some burgeoning “green shoots” that offered early, encouraging signs of economic recovery around the world. I’m pleased to see that more green shoots are sprouting – we continue to receive positive economic news as developed world economies progress in their re-openings. However, I’m also keeping an eye on some negative signs that could cause disruption.

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Near-term pullback, long-term uptrend

On March 13, 2020, we began talking¹ and writing² about a series of tactical market bottom indicators³ that showed signs of extreme risk-off positioning, which were positive from a contrarian perspective. One of those indicators was the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) equity put/call ratio. Little did we know it at the time, but ten days later, the S&P 500 Index would put in what now appears to be a major low for the cycle.

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Answering your questions on inflation, equity allocation and gold

I recently presented a webinar detailing the three scenarios that the Invesco Investment Solutions team believes could unfold over the coming 12 to 15 months. We created three brief videos that outline our Base, Bear and Bull case scenarios that I discussed. The webinar included a Q&A session, but we were not able to get to all of the questions within our allotted time. I would like to answer some of them here.

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Bond positioning for a potential recovery

While global economies are slowly reopening, we see the COVID-19 crisis as only magnifying the slow growth and low inflation environment we were in prior to the pandemic, with interest rates remaining low for an extended period.

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Five key takeaways from the Fed’s press conference

Last week saw a massive sell-off for stocks globally. The initial trigger seems to have come from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Below, I summarize five key points from that press conference and the key takeaways I heard while “reading between the lines.”

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Video: U-shaped recovery would be enough for bonds

The markets have been pretty vulnerable over the last few months, but they’ve started to settle down over the past month and a half. I believe a lot of the credit for this lies with incredible liquidity provided by central banks around the world.

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Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery

The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking for signs of economic life after the global financial crisis and searching for indications that the U.S. and other developed countries were rising out of the economic ashes like a phoenix. And now, 11 years later, I find myself again looking for – and finding – encouraging signs of recovery in the U.S. and other major developed countries. In this week’s blog, I focus on some of the green shoots that I’ve seen in the last several weeks.

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Answering your questions on jobs, debt

I recently participated in a webinar for advisors and investors, Financial markets: Historical perspective and roadmap to recovery, followed by a brief Q&A session (you can watch a replay here). I’d like to take this opportunity to answer some of the questions we received but didn’t have time to address.

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Portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario

In response to numerous client questions about portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario, we provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations. Also, we juxtapose typical recovery performance trends against recent price action.

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A case study in lowering unemployment: The Work Projects Administration

Unemployment rates for many countries are sky high and likely to remain high for some time. In response to the pandemic, many developed countries’ central banks have showered accommodative monetary policy on their respective economies. However, if history is a guide, that is unlikely to have a major impact on lowering unemployment. Instead, fiscal policy can be more impactful on unemployment because it is more direct. As governments around the world debate the next steps of their policy response, this is perhaps a valuable time to examine a case study in reducing unemployment through fiscal spending.

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Fed to purchase corporate bonds through ETFs

On March 23, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its intent to acquire investment grade corporate bonds. The purpose of the communication was to support a market in which sharp price declines were threatening to disrupt the normal functioning of primary (new issue) and secondary market activities. On April 9, the Fed announced an expanded definition of bonds eligible for purchase to include those with investment grade ratings as of March 23, even if they had since been downgraded to high yield, as long as they remain in the BB category.

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5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

As the world remains in the grip of the coronavirus, we’ve received many questions about the outlook for Chinese and emerging market (EM) stocks – as China was ground zero for the pandemic. First and foremost, we’re asked what the challenges and opportunities are for that country and region?

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Need some good news? Markets, economy do offer some

John Krasinksi of The Office and Jack Ryan fame recently initiated a web series entitled “Some Good News.” It’s a news program devoted entirely to good news. I wish I had thought of that. Since I didn’t, I’m left to borrow the concept. This blog, and subsequent ones in this series, will be devoted entirely to producing lists of good (or less bad) news. After all, as Dwight Schrute says in the episode of “The Office” in which Jim Halpert mockingly takes on Dwight’s persona, “Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery. So, I thank you.”

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U.S.-China tensions could be the biggest risk to U.S. stocks this year

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Low-wage job losses fuel the U.S. stimulus debate

As expected, the U.S. Employment Situation Report for April was abysmal. Unemployment rose dramatically as pandemic lockdown measures were implemented across the U.S., with hospitality and leisure posting the biggest job losses. Amidst all the terrible data, there was one obvious and glaring takeaway: Job losses were concentrated among low-wage workers. In fact, so many lower-paying jobs were lost that wage growth rose markedly, underscoring how hard hit lower-income workers have been by this pandemic.

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Video: Do markets need to retest prior lows?

Following several positive trading sessions, investors may be asking whether the markets need to retest their prior lows.

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Global Markets: What to watch for in May

One month ago in this blog, I noted that April would be a critical month to gauge the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the board, it was a massive response, including significant monetary and fiscal stimulus from a variety of economies and widespread lockdowns designed to slow the rate of infection. But as we enter May, we are seeing differences in approach come to the fore – between countries, between localities, and between political parties.

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Video: Observations in innovation

While the economy remains stalled under COVID-19 restrictions, some of the consequences may provide interesting opportunities. One is that the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of several innovations.

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