Tactical asset allocation — December 2020 recap
Global recovery is likely to continue, boosted by news of vaccine breakthroughs
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Global recovery is likely to continue, boosted by news of vaccine breakthroughs
Comments Off on Tactical asset allocation — December 2020 recap
Weekly Market Compass: It was a week of surprise, horror and disappointment. Why didn’t stocks react?
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Market predictions and investment resolutions for 2021
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This is the last blog of the year for me. And what a year it has been — one full of loss. Loss of people, first and foremost, and also of businesses. It was just reported the other day that New York icon The 21 Club will be closing for good, the latest of many service-related businesses to sadly fall victim to the pandemic. I think we are all eagerly waiting to close the books on 2020 and looking forward to brighter days in 2021. I want to thank the many health care workers and other frontline workers (including grocery store employees, emergency responders and teachers) who have risked their lives this year in the face of the pandemic. I think I speak for all of my Invesco colleagues in saying that I am in awe of you and all you have done this year.
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As we say good riddance to 2020, we enter 2021 with a confidence that new market and business cycles have arisen. We believe the economy, out of the depths of the COVID-induced recession, has entered what will be a protracted recovery, complete with the inevitable fits and starts, as experienced at the end of 2020. It may be years before the U.S. returns to its full productive capabilities and full employment has been restored. Nonetheless, we believe the markets will be focused on the improvements in economic activity in the coming years.
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While I have never lived in Florida, I have spent enough time there since childhood to be familiar with a weather phenomenon referred to as “the mean season.” It describes a brutal weather pattern that typically occurs in the late summer months. Hot, humid mornings are often followed by severe thunderstorms in the afternoon, which blow in from the ocean. However, the rain does not alleviate the heat — it actually exacerbates the heat in the evening, setting the stage for another hot, humid morning to follow. Hurricanes and tropical storms are sprinkled throughout the season, making it even more difficult. Throughout this oppressive weather pattern, there is typically no relief from the heat — and it can last for a month or more. Hence the term “the mean season.”
Comments Off on As COVID cases rise, the world looks toward a vaccine
Three years ago, we wrote about “your car in 5 years’ time,” but it is already time for an update. Voice commands have been fully integrated into new cars, and they’re capable of doing much more than the commercials demonstrating “Alexa, start my car” promised. Making phone calls hands-free in the car seems normal now, and so progress goes – the once fantastic and whimsical ideas becoming commonplace.
The auto companies are serious about innovation. Research and development (R&D) dollars spent in the auto industry were close to $130 billion USD in 2018, only trailing R&D dollars spent in the Healthcare and Information and Communications Technology sectors.2
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The British philosopher Bertrand Russell once said, “What men want is not knowledge but certainty.” I have been thinking a lot about that quote in the last several weeks, and how especially in such uncertain times, certainty may be more helpful than knowledge in allowing us to move forward.
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Could the stars align for a ‘Goldilocks’ economy?
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As we wait for the votes to be counted, and perhaps recounted, in some key states, we’ve gotten some questions about the potential for a divided government and what it could mean for markets if the White House and Congress are split between parties.
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With ballots still being counted, the U.S. presidential election remains undecided. Our experts discuss the next steps in the process and the potential market and economic implications.
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As of midnight EST, the 2020 presidential election remains up in the air. With ballots remaining to be counted in several states, an official result may not be known for some time. Below, our experts discuss the next steps in the political process, the policy issues that the markets will be watching, and two critical questions for investors to ask themselves right now.
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Since the dark days of March and April, I have remained steadfast in looking across the valley to better times ahead, and this time is no exception. Regardless of near-term turbulence, I continue to favour portfolio positioning for optimistic, long-term outcomes by emphasizing the “recovery” trade and embracing cyclicality. Fortunately, key barometers of global growth have validated this positive outlook.
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Well, last week was in fact a Pepto Bismol kind of week, just as I had expected. No fiscal stimulus in the U.S., COVID-19 cases on the rise in Europe and the U.S., and growing concerns about the U.S. presidential election. It’s no wonder that the VIX volatility index has risen dramatically in the last few weeks, from 25 on Oct. 9 to 38 on Oct. 30.1 As I’ve said before, today’s election concerns aren’t your usual run-of-the-mill worries like we saw in past election cycles. Past questions focused on issues such as “What happens to stocks if corporate taxes go up?” This time around, it is “What happens if there is a contested election?” and “What happens if there is civil unrest?”
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I am lucky enough to have developed a network of friends despite being a working mom. Some of these friends go back to childhood and high school, some are moms I have met through my children’s schools, and some are friends I have met in the workplace. They have provided a wonderful web of support throughout the chaos that can be child-rearing and everyday life. I have joked with them about particularly bad days — like a parent-teacher conference that we expected to go awry — as being “Pepto-Bismol” days, referring to the medicine used to combat upset stomach (an unfortunate symptom of many a crazy day).
Well, I feel some serious Pepto-Bismol days coming on, given the impending U.S. presidential election, the declining possibility of another U.S. fiscal stimulus package in 2020, and rising COVID-19 infection rates around the world.
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This month, I’m watching five key issues that have the potential to impact global markets.
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There is a feeling of apprehension in markets. I can sense it in the questions I receive. I continue to get more run-of-the-mill queries such as: “Are stocks still overvalued at current levels?” But then there are the new questions, which reflect deeper concerns. Most of the election-related questions I have received are like none I have gotten before in my career.
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